Oklahoma at Michigan NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Michigan by 3.9 points, giving them a 59% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 38.1 combined points, with Michigan at 21.1 and Oklahoma at 17.2. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Michigan favored by 1.5 points, a 2.4-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Michigan's margin lands between -18.5 and +26.3 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Michigan -3.9 / Oklahoma +3.9 Moneyline: Michigan -145 / Oklahoma +145 Win probability: Michigan 59.1% / Oklahoma 40.9% Projected total: 38.1 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Michigan: 1627.7, Oklahoma: 1638.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Michigan Oklahoma ----------------- -------- -------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +0.6 +1.4 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +10.9 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Michigan -1.5 / Oklahoma +1.5 Consensus moneyline: Michigan -113 / Oklahoma -106 Market no-vig win probability: Michigan 50.8% / Oklahoma 49.2% Spread range across books: -1.5 to +1.0 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:04.020650+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Michigan EV% Oklahoma EV% ---------- -------- ------ -------- ------ betrivers -106 +14.9% -117 -24.2% draftkings -130 +4.6% +110 -14.1% fanduel -113 +11.4% -106 -20.5% mybookieag -132 +3.9% +104 -16.6% Spread: Book Michigan Oklahoma ---------- ----------- ----------- betrivers +1.0 (-112) -1.0 (-112) draftkings -1.5 (-112) +1.5 (-108) fanduel -1.5 (-106) +1.5 (-114) mybookieag -2.0 (-110) +2.0 (-110) Line movement: opened Michigan -2.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -1.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Oklahoma 17.2 -- Michigan 21.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Michigan margin -18.5 -7.8 +3.8 +15.6 +26.3 Total points 17.4 27.2 38.3 49.6 59.8 Probability Michigan covers the market spread: 55.0% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: MICHIGAN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Bryce Underwood QB Passing yards 175.5 91-248 Pass attempts 26.9 18-36 Completions 16.6 10-23 Passing TDs 0.81 55% 1+, 19% 2+ Rushing yards 25.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Andrew Marsh WR Receiving yards 59.3 24-117 Receptions 4.8 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Jordan Marshall RB Rushing yards 48.1 7-81 Carries 12.7 7-21 Rushing TDs 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ Receiving yards 10.5 -- Receptions 2.0 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ JJ Buchanan WR Receiving yards 43.9 8-65 Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Bryson Kuzdzal RB Rushing yards 33.3 -- Carries 11.1 6-20 Rushing TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 8.2 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Zack Marshall TE Receiving yards 25.7 2-50 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Channing Goodwin WR Receiving yards 22.1 -- Receptions 1.9 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Deakon Tonielli TE Receiving yards 20.2 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chris Bracy S Tackles 6.5 4-8 John Henry Daley DE Tackles 4.4 3-6 Sacks 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Max Alford LB Sacks 0.17 15% 1+ OKLAHOMA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- John Mateer QB Passing yards 207.7 123-281 Pass attempts 31.4 22-38 Completions 18.9 12-23 Passing TDs 0.90 59% 1+, 23% 2+ Rushing yards 30.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Isaiah Sategna III WR Rushing yards 13.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 63.2 28-106 Receptions 4.7 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.55 42% 1+, 11% 2+ Trell Harris WR Receiving yards 53.7 18-100 Receptions 4.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Xavier Robinson RB Rushing yards 47.1 6-89 Carries 10.0 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 14.9 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Rocky Beers TE Receiving yards 43.9 20-77 Receptions 3.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.83 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Tory Blaylock RB Rushing yards 42.6 2-77 Carries 10.6 5-17 Rushing TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Receiving yards 14.9 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Parker Livingstone WR Receiving yards 38.0 2-68 Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Hayden Hansen TE Receiving yards 23.6 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Owen Heinecke LB Tackles 6.8 4-10 Kip Lewis LB Tackles 6.3 4-10 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Danny Okoye DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Michigan recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Oklahoma recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ----- ------ 2025 MICH 13 OU 24 OU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10163