App State at East Carolina NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors East Carolina by 16.7 points, giving them a 83% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 64.5 combined points, with East Carolina at 40.6 and App State at 24.1. Simulating the game 10,000 times, East Carolina's margin lands between -5.4 and +38.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: East Carolina -16.7 / App State +16.7 Moneyline: East Carolina -475 / App State +475 Win probability: East Carolina 82.6% / App State 17.4% Projected total: 64.5 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- East Carolina: 1568.9, App State: 1388.6 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor East Carolina App State ----------------- ------------- --------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.3 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +4.8 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: App State 24.1 -- East Carolina 40.6 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- East Carolina margin -5.4 +4.9 +16.5 +28.1 +38.5 Total points 43.5 53.1 64.9 75.9 86.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: EAST CAROLINA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Mitch Griffis QB Passing yards 170.2 86-280 Pass attempts 18.5 10-27 Completions 12.2 6-19 Passing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Rushing yards 11.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Michael Allen RB Rushing yards 50.7 10-99 Carries 10.9 6-19 Rushing TDs 0.55 42% 1+, 10% 2+ Receiving yards 22.7 3-45 Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Ashton Gray RB Rushing yards 48.7 8-94 Carries 8.9 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Landon Sides WR Receiving yards 46.6 11-88 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Brock Spalding WR Receiving yards 41.0 5-82 Receptions 2.9 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Kanen Hamlett TE Receiving yards 23.9 0-49 Receptions 2.7 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Tyler Johnson WR Receiving yards 15.0 -- Receptions 1.2 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Zyeir Gamble DB Tackles 6.7 4-10 DJ Johnson Jr. LB Tackles 5.6 2-8 Kendrick DuJour DL Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Rion Roseborough DL Sacks 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ APP STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Malachi Singleton QB Passing yards 107.7 23-188 Pass attempts 16.0 8-27 Completions 9.1 3-15 Passing TDs 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Rushing yards 23.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Jaquari Lewis RB Rushing yards 50.8 10-101 Carries 12.1 6-23 Rushing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Receiving yards 18.0 -- Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ JMarion Burnette RB Rushing yards 31.7 -- Carries 9.6 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Sam Mbake WR Receiving yards 31.0 -- Receptions 3.6 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Alexander Sanchez WR Receiving yards 19.1 -- Receptions 1.9 -- Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Colton Phares LB Tackles 7.9 5-11 Cary Grant DB Tackles 4.2 2-7 Aiden Benton DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Caleb Sandstrom DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ East Carolina recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games App State recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2024 APP 21 ECU 19 APP 2023 ECU 28 APP 43 APP ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10164