Washington State at Kansas State NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Kansas State by 6.9 points, giving them a 66% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 42.5 combined points, with Kansas State at 24.6 and Washington State at 17.9. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Kansas State's margin lands between -15.3 and +28.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Kansas State -6.9 / Washington State +6.9 Moneyline: Kansas State -191 / Washington State +191 Win probability: Kansas State 65.6% / Washington State 34.4% Projected total: 42.5 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Kansas State: 1567.8, Washington State: 1534.1 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Kansas State Washington State ----------------- ------------ ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +1.6 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +11.2 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Washington State 17.9 -- Kansas State 24.6 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Kansas State margin -15.3 -4.9 +6.6 +18.5 +28.9 Total points 21.0 30.9 42.4 54.1 64.3 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: KANSAS STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Avery Johnson QB Passing yards 170.3 86-237 Pass attempts 27.8 19-37 Completions 16.8 10-23 Passing TDs 1.42 76% 1+, 41% 2+ Rushing yards 40.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.71 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Joe Jackson RB Rushing yards 65.9 25-158 Carries 13.5 8-22 Rushing TDs 0.90 59% 1+, 23% 2+ Receiving yards 16.7 -- Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Rodney Fields Jr. RB Rushing yards 61.4 20-108 Carries 12.7 7-18 Rushing TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Receiving yards 26.2 7-53 Receptions 3.2 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Garrett Oakley TE Receiving yards 40.2 16-66 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.71 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Jaron Tibbs WR Receiving yards 39.7 4-51 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Brandon White WR Receiving yards 28.9 -- Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Josh Manning WR Receiving yards 23.2 -- Receptions 2.7 0-5 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Linkon Cure TE Receiving yards 18.0 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mekhi Mason LB Tackles 5.1 2-7 Zashon Rich CB Tackles 4.7 3-7 Elijah Hill DE Sacks 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Jordan Allen DE Sacks 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ WASHINGTON STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Kirby Vorhees RB Rushing yards 65.9 25-91 Carries 12.5 7-16 Rushing TDs 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Receiving yards 19.9 0-32 Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Maxwell Woods RB Rushing yards 51.2 10-100 Carries 7.5 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 25.8 6-44 Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tony Freeman WR Receiving yards 45.3 10-78 Receptions 4.0 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Trey Leckner TE Receiving yards 28.3 4-49 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Daniel Blood WR Receiving yards 24.4 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jack Pedersen TE Receiving yards 20.5 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Branden Ganashamoorthy WR Receiving yards 18.8 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaylen Thomas S Tackles 4.9 2-7 Nylan Brown LB Tackles 4.8 2-6 DJ Warner LB Sacks 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Linus Zunk DE Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Kansas State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Washington State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10165