Wake Forest at Purdue NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Wake Forest by 7.7 points, giving them a 67% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 50.2 combined points, with Purdue at 21.1 and Wake Forest at 28.8. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Purdue's margin lands between -30.0 and +14.3 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Purdue +7.7 / Wake Forest -7.7 Moneyline: Purdue +206 / Wake Forest -206 Win probability: Purdue 32.6% / Wake Forest 67.3% Projected total: 50.2 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Purdue: 1330.1, Wake Forest: 1525.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Purdue Wake Forest ----------------- ------ ----------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.5 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +8.4 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Wake Forest 28.8 -- Purdue 21.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Purdue margin -30.0 -19.3 -7.7 +3.8 +14.3 Total points 28.3 38.6 49.8 61.0 71.5 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: PURDUE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Ryan Browne QB Passing yards 141.9 58-232 Pass attempts 28.3 20-46 Completions 16.7 10-27 Passing TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Rushing yards 16.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.19 18% 1+ Asaad Waseem WR Receiving yards 51.4 16-82 Receptions 5.2 3-9 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Jerrick Gibson RB Rushing yards 41.5 0-69 Carries 10.8 5-19 Rushing TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Corey Smith WR Receiving yards 41.1 6-64 Receptions 3.3 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Fame Ijeboi RB Rushing yards 39.1 -- Carries 10.3 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Receiving yards 9.6 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Xavier Townsend WR Rushing yards 4.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 34.5 -- Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kylan Fox TE Receiving yards 22.9 -- Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Charles Correa LB Tackles 6.6 4-12 John Slaughter DB Tackles 4.9 2-7 Hudson Miller LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Trey Smith DE Sacks 0.20 18% 1+ WAKE FOREST Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Gio Lopez QB Passing yards 197.2 113-252 Pass attempts 27.3 18-37 Completions 17.7 12-23 Passing TDs 0.78 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Rushing yards 11.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Carlos Hernandez WR Receiving yards 72.9 37-154 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Wondame Davis Jr. WR Receiving yards 68.0 32-140 Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Ty Clark III RB Rushing yards 59.8 19-107 Carries 8.8 3-14 Rushing TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 33.0 14-64 Receptions 2.5 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Chase Tyler WR Receiving yards 46.6 11-81 Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ KD Daniels RB Rushing yards 33.8 -- Carries 5.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Landon Morris TE Receiving yards 28.2 4-36 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.52 40% 1+, 10% 2+ Kamrean Johnson TE Receiving yards 21.9 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Aiden Hall LB Tackles 5.7 3-9 Davaughn Patterson DB Tackles 5.7 4-8 Langston Hardy DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Gabe Kirschke DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Purdue recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Wake Forest recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10166