Penn State at Temple NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Penn State by 14.5 points, giving them a 80% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 54.0 combined points, with Temple at 19.9 and Penn State at 34.4. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Temple's margin lands between -36.7 and +7.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Temple +14.5 / Penn State -14.5 Moneyline: Temple +390 / Penn State -390 Win probability: Temple 20.4% / Penn State 79.6% Projected total: 54.0 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Temple: 1374.7, Penn State: 1669.4 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Temple Penn State ----------------- ------ ---------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +0.1 +2.3 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +0.5 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Penn State 34.4 -- Temple 19.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------- ----- ----- ----- ---- ---- Temple margin -36.7 -25.9 -14.5 -3.0 +7.6 Total points 32.9 42.9 54.4 65.7 75.6 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: TEMPLE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Hunter Smith RB Rushing yards 45.2 4-83 Carries 8.0 2-12 Rushing TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Receiving yards 16.8 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Colin Chase WR Rushing yards 11.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 41.9 6-58 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ JoJo Bermudez WR Rushing yards 3.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 39.6 4-60 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.27 23% 1+ Keveun Mason RB Rushing yards 35.4 -- Carries 6.8 1-10 Rushing TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Receiving yards 14.9 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Peter Clarke TE Receiving yards 33.7 10-58 Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Ryder Kusch TE Receiving yards 11.8 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Curly Ordonez LB Tackles 6.7 4-11 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Avery Powell S Tackles 4.9 2-8 JaMair Diaz LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ PENN STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Rocco Becht QB Passing yards 225.2 141-317 Pass attempts 29.7 21-41 Completions 17.8 12-26 Passing TDs 1.24 71% 1+, 35% 2+ Rushing yards 13.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.82 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Carson Hansen RB Rushing yards 83.0 42-124 Carries 14.4 9-21 Rushing TDs 0.95 61% 1+, 25% 2+ Receiving yards 19.8 0-32 Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chase Sowell WR Receiving yards 60.2 24-109 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Brett Eskildsen WR Receiving yards 51.2 16-93 Receptions 3.3 1-6 Receiving TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ James Peoples RB Rushing yards 44.9 4-68 Carries 7.2 2-9 Rushing TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Receiving yards 13.2 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Benjamin Brahmer TE Receiving yards 43.9 20-65 Receptions 3.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Koby Howard WR Receiving yards 32.6 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Gabe Burkle TE Receiving yards 32.5 9-47 Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kooper Ebel LB Tackles 7.2 4-10 Tony Rojas LB Tackles 6.4 4-10 Caleb Bacon LB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Vaboue Toure S Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Temple recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Penn State recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10167