Western Kentucky at Georgia NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 4:45 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Georgia by 21.7 points, giving them a 88% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 46.1 combined points, with Georgia at 33.7 and Western Kentucky at 12.4. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Georgia's margin lands between -0.8 and +43.8 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Georgia -21.7 / Western Kentucky +21.7 Moneyline: Georgia -763 / Western Kentucky +763 Win probability: Georgia 88.4% / Western Kentucky 11.6% Projected total: 46.1 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Georgia: 1774.4, Western Kentucky: 1509.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Georgia Western Kentucky ----------------- ------- ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.8 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +7.2 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Western Kentucky 12.4 -- Georgia 33.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Georgia margin -0.8 +9.5 +21.4 +33.3 +43.8 Total points 24.7 34.6 46.1 57.3 67.5 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: GEORGIA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Gunner Stockton QB Passing yards 206.3 122-278 Pass attempts 27.6 19-32 Completions 19.1 13-24 Passing TDs 1.67 81% 1+, 50% 2+ Rushing yards 30.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Nate Frazier RB Rushing yards 71.1 30-120 Carries 13.2 8-15 Rushing TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 17.8 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Chauncey Bowens RB Rushing yards 47.1 6-77 Carries 9.4 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Receiving yards 16.5 -- Receptions 2.5 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Isiah Canion WR Receiving yards 37.1 2-61 Receptions 3.0 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ London Humphreys WR Receiving yards 30.8 -- Receptions 2.1 -- Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Elyiss Williams TE Receiving yards 30.6 7-49 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Lawson Luckie TE Receiving yards 26.2 2-42 Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Sacovie White-Helton WR Receiving yards 13.1 -- Receptions 1.2 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ja'Marley Riddle S Tackles 6.1 4-9 KJ Bolden DB Tackles 5.6 4-9 Zayden Walker LB Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Amaris Williams LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ WESTERN KENTUCKY Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Rodney Tisdale Jr. QB Passing yards 207.7 123-336 Pass attempts 29.4 20-42 Completions 18.8 12-28 Passing TDs 1.03 64% 1+, 28% 2+ Rushing yards 20.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ K.D. Hutchinson WR Rushing yards 15.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Receiving yards 49.5 14-80 Receptions 5.5 4-7 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Moussa Barry WR Receiving yards 37.2 2-60 Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Ajay Allen RB Rushing yards 33.3 -- Carries 10.9 6-21 Rushing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Receiving yards 15.1 -- Receptions 3.0 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cameron Flowers WR Receiving yards 27.9 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Kalib Hicks RB Rushing yards 24.1 -- Carries 9.0 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Lofton Howard TE Receiving yards 6.8 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaylen Lewis DB Tackles 6.0 4-10 Dave Herard DB Tackles 4.5 2-6 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Zeiqui Lawton DT Sacks 0.21 19% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Georgia recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Western Kentucky recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10168