California at Syracuse NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 7:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors California by 1.7 points, giving them a 54% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 51.9 combined points, with Syracuse at 25.1 and California at 27.0. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Syracuse's margin lands between -23.9 and +20.0 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Syracuse +1.7 / California -1.7 Moneyline: Syracuse +118 / California -118 Win probability: Syracuse 46.0% / California 54.0% Projected total: 51.9 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Syracuse: 1356.3, California: 1449.1 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Syracuse California ----------------- -------- ---------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 -5.0 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +10.7 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: California 27.0 -- Syracuse 25.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Syracuse margin -23.9 -13.6 -1.9 +9.7 +20.0 Total points 30.6 40.9 52.1 63.3 73.6 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: SYRACUSE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Steve Angeli QB Passing yards 246.0 162-349 Pass attempts 34.0 26-47 Completions 20.9 14-30 Passing TDs 1.45 77% 1+, 43% 2+ Rushing yards 2.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cole Weaver WR Receiving yards 68.9 33-98 Receptions 4.2 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Tylik Hill RB Rushing yards 47.2 6-69 Carries 7.8 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ju'Juan Johnson RB Rushing yards 38.9 -- Carries 4.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 17.0 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Noah Meyers TE Receiving yards 25.2 1-48 Receptions 3.2 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Darien Williams WR Receiving yards 23.1 -- Receptions 2.2 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Daunte Bacheyie TE Receiving yards 14.6 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chris D'Appolonia LB Tackles 6.1 3-9 Antoine Deslauriers LB Tackles 5.2 2-8 Tunmise Adeleye DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Jartavius Flounoy DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ CALIFORNIA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele QB Passing yards 319.0 235-385 Pass attempts 36.6 28-44 Completions 23.6 18-29 Passing TDs 1.42 76% 1+, 41% 2+ Rushing yards -9.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.42 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Chase Hendricks WR Receiving yards 65.6 30-109 Receptions 4.7 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.41 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Ian Strong WR Receiving yards 61.5 26-118 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.31 26% 1+ Ashten Emory RB Rushing yards 61.5 20-125 Carries 11.0 6-16 Rushing TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Receiving yards 14.3 -- Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Adam Mohammed RB Rushing yards 54.8 14-104 Carries 10.5 5-19 Rushing TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 15.7 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jordan King WR Receiving yards 36.6 1-59 Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Mason Mini TE Receiving yards 29.3 5-50 Receptions 3.2 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.55 42% 1+, 10% 2+ Dorian Thomas TE Receiving yards 27.1 3-42 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Isaiah Crosby DB Tackles 5.0 3-7 Aiden Manutai DB Tackles 4.7 2-7 Joshua Pierce LB Sacks 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Jayden Wayne LB Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Syracuse recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games California recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2024 SYR 33 CAL 25 SYR ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10169