UTSA at Texas State NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 7:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Texas State by 4.3 points, giving them a 60% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 87.0 combined points, with Texas State at 45.4 and UTSA at 41.5. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Texas State's margin lands between -17.9 and +25.7 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Texas State -4.3 / UTSA +4.3 Moneyline: Texas State -149 / UTSA +149 Win probability: Texas State 59.9% / UTSA 40.2% Projected total: 87.0 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Texas State: 1544.3, UTSA: 1551.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Texas State UTSA ----------------- ----------- ---- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.9 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +11.8 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: UTSA 41.5 -- Texas State 45.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------ ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Texas State margin -17.9 -7.7 +4.1 +15.6 +25.7 Total points 65.4 75.3 86.8 98.5 108.7 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: TEXAS STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Brad Jackson QB Passing yards 240.2 156-336 Pass attempts 28.5 20-36 Completions 20.1 14-25 Passing TDs 1.98 86% 1+, 59% 2+ Rushing yards 51.1 11-82 Rushing TDs 1.56 79% 1+, 46% 2+ Chris Dawn Jr. WR Receiving yards 78.0 42-136 Receptions 5.5 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ Beau Sparks WR Rushing yards 23.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Receiving yards 76.8 41-130 Receptions 5.5 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.84 57% 1+, 20% 2+ Jaylen Jenkins RB Rushing yards 40.3 -- Carries 7.0 2-9 Rushing TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Kylen Evans WR Receiving yards 25.6 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Torrance Burgess Jr. RB Rushing yards 22.6 -- Carries 7.7 2-9 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Blake Smith TE Receiving yards 19.0 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ty Stamey TE Receiving yards 16.0 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Javante Mackey LB Tackles 7.1 4-13 Ryan Nolan DB Tackles 6.4 4-8 DonTerry Russell DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Cole Nilles LB Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ UTSA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Owen McCown QB Passing yards 260.0 176-358 Pass attempts 29.5 21-38 Completions 20.0 14-27 Passing TDs 3.10 96% 1+, 82% 2+ Rushing yards 4.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Will Henderson III RB Rushing yards 61.6 20-113 Carries 11.0 6-18 Rushing TDs 0.92 60% 1+, 23% 2+ Receiving yards 15.5 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.31 26% 1+ David Amador II WR Rushing yards 5.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 49.2 14-87 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ AJ Wilson Jr. WR Receiving yards 48.9 13-78 Receptions 3.2 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Brandon High Jr. RB Rushing yards 36.4 -- Carries 8.8 3-13 Rushing TDs 0.31 26% 1+ DJ Allen Jr. WR Receiving yards 34.2 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Brandon Tucker LB Tackles 3.6 0-6 James Walley Jr. LB Tackles 3.3 0-5 Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Elijah Baldwin LB Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Texas State recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games UTSA recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 TXST 43 UTSA 36 TXST 2024 UTSA 10 TXST 49 TXST 2023 TXST 13 UTSA 20 UTSA ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10170