UL Monroe at UAB NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 7:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors UAB by 10.2 points, giving them a 72% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 49.5 combined points, with UAB at 30.0 and UL Monroe at 19.8. Simulating the game 10,000 times, UAB's margin lands between -12.2 and +32.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: UAB -10.2 / UL Monroe +10.2 Moneyline: UAB -260 / UL Monroe +260 Win probability: UAB 72.2% / UL Monroe 27.8% Projected total: 49.5 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- UAB: 1357.1, UL Monroe: 1283.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor UAB UL Monroe ----------------- ----- --------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +2.4 +2.9 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +12.9 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: UL Monroe 19.8 -- UAB 30.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- UAB margin -12.2 -1.4 +10.0 +22.1 +32.6 Total points 28.0 38.4 49.8 61.3 71.7 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: UAB Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Ryder Burton QB Passing yards 151.1 67-275 Pass attempts 21.9 13-38 Completions 13.6 8-24 Passing TDs 1.05 65% 1+, 28% 2+ Rushing yards 1.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Kaleb Brown WR Receiving yards 45.1 10-75 Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Ja'Vin Simpkins RB Rushing yards 44.4 3-68 Carries 10.8 5-14 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 12.2 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Bam McReynolds RB Rushing yards 40.5 -- Carries 10.3 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Receiving yards 11.4 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Antonio Ferguson TE Receiving yards 15.9 -- Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Muaaz Byard LB Tackles 5.5 2-9 Darrell Sweeting DB Tackles 4.2 2-6 Elijah Hall DL Sacks 0.80 55% 1+, 19% 2+ J'Quan Mason DE Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ UL MONROE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Aidan Armenta QB Passing yards 197.0 113-272 Pass attempts 26.2 18-32 Completions 15.8 10-20 Passing TDs 1.47 77% 1+, 43% 2+ Rushing yards 5.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Nic Trujillo WR Receiving yards 62.2 27-112 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.86 58% 1+, 21% 2+ JP Coulter WR Receiving yards 36.4 1-64 Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Brandon Buckhaulter WR Receiving yards 29.6 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.50 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Bryce Anderson TE Receiving yards 12.0 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Noah Flemmings LB Tackles 6.9 4-10 Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Jabari Tiller DB Tackles 4.9 2-8 Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ UAB recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games UL Monroe recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ----- ------ ------ 2024 UAB 6 ULM 32 ULM ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10171