Duke at Illinois NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 7:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Illinois by 2.8 points, giving them a 57% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 61.5 combined points, with Illinois at 32.1 and Duke at 29.4. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Illinois's margin lands between -19.5 and +24.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Illinois -2.8 / Duke +2.8 Moneyline: Illinois -130 / Duke +130 Win probability: Illinois 56.6% / Duke 43.4% Projected total: 61.5 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Illinois: 1578.1, Duke: 1613.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Illinois Duke ----------------- -------- ---- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.3 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +15.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Duke 29.4 -- Illinois 32.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Illinois margin -19.5 -8.7 +2.8 +14.2 +24.9 Total points 39.6 50.1 61.6 72.9 83.0 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: ILLINOIS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Katin Houser QB Passing yards 329.0 245-394 Pass attempts 30.8 22-38 Completions 19.8 14-23 Passing TDs 1.89 85% 1+, 56% 2+ Rushing yards 27.6 -- Rushing TDs 1.08 66% 1+, 29% 2+ Alex Perry WR Receiving yards 83.4 48-127 Receptions 4.6 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.87 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Jayshon Platt WR Receiving yards 65.8 30-120 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Hudson Clement WR Receiving yards 51.8 16-84 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Ca'Lil Valentine RB Rushing yards 49.4 8-80 Carries 11.4 6-19 Rushing TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Receiving yards 14.9 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Aidan Laughery RB Rushing yards 41.3 0-63 Carries 9.3 4-12 Rushing TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Receiving yards 12.4 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kaden Feagin TE Receiving yards 21.3 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Matthew Bailey DB Tackles 6.4 4-9 Will Holmes LB Tackles 5.1 2-9 Darrell Prater DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Joe Barna DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ DUKE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Walker Eget QB Passing yards 276.0 192-461 Pass attempts 33.0 24-50 Completions 20.3 14-31 Passing TDs 1.89 85% 1+, 56% 2+ Rushing yards 19.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Nate Sheppard RB Rushing yards 63.0 22-102 Carries 14.6 9-19 Rushing TDs 1.03 64% 1+, 28% 2+ Receiving yards 20.6 1-38 Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Javen Nicholas WR Rushing yards 10.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 54.1 18-114 Receptions 4.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.58 44% 1+, 12% 2+ Jeremiah Hasley TE Receiving yards 33.4 10-58 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Nate Kurisky TE Receiving yards 17.3 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Luke Mergott LB Tackles 8.3 6-11 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ DaShawn Stone S Tackles 5.6 4-8 Elliott Schaper LB Sacks 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Illinois recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Duke recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------- ------ 2025 ILL 45 DUKE 19 ILL ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10172