Rice at Notre Dame NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 7:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Notre Dame by 33.0 points, giving them a 96% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 72.6 combined points, with Notre Dame at 52.9 and Rice at 19.8. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Notre Dame's margin lands between +11.0 and +55.2 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Notre Dame -33.0 / Rice +33.0 Moneyline: Notre Dame -2186 / Rice +2186 Win probability: Notre Dame 95.6% / Rice 4.4% Projected total: 72.6 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Notre Dame: 1786.8, Rice: 1352.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Notre Dame Rice ----------------- ---------- ----- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue -1.8 +0.9 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +4.4 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Rice 19.8 -- Notre Dame 52.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Notre Dame margin +11.0 +21.4 +33.1 +44.7 +55.2 Total points 51.2 61.4 72.8 84.1 94.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: NOTRE DAME Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- CJ Carr QB Passing yards 237.6 153-346 Pass attempts 25.5 17-34 Completions 16.4 10-22 Passing TDs 2.34 90% 1+, 68% 2+ Rushing yards 8.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Aneyas Williams RB Rushing yards 60.2 19-100 Carries 8.2 2-12 Rushing TDs 1.42 76% 1+, 42% 2+ Jordan Faison WR Receiving yards 57.1 21-92 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Mylan Graham WR Receiving yards 38.1 2-58 Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Quincy Porter WR Receiving yards 31.4 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Nolan James Jr. RB Rushing yards 30.8 -- Carries 5.9 0-7 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jack Larsen TE Receiving yards 23.8 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ty Washington TE Receiving yards 21.4 -- Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Drayk Bowen LB Tackles 6.0 3-10 Brauntae Johnson S Tackles 5.2 3-7 Boubacar Traore DL Sacks 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Keon Keeley DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ RICE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Quinton Jackson RB Rushing yards 36.7 -- Carries 12.1 6-20 Rushing TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Payton Matthews WR Receiving yards 33.0 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ D'Andre Hardeman Jr. RB Rushing yards 24.1 -- Carries 8.9 4-12 Rushing TDs 0.14 14% 1+ James Falk TE Receiving yards 16.8 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Stone Combs LB Tackles 5.8 3-7 AJ Brown DE Tackles 5.5 4-8 Daveon Hook S Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Joseph Mutombo DL Sacks 0.21 19% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Notre Dame recent form: 5-0 over last 5 games Rice recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10173