Arizona at BYU NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 7:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors BYU by 10.1 points, giving them a 72% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 48.5 combined points, with BYU at 29.4 and Arizona at 19.3. Simulating the game 10,000 times, BYU's margin lands between -12.1 and +32.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: BYU -10.1 / Arizona +10.1 Moneyline: BYU -257 / Arizona +257 Win probability: BYU 72.0% / Arizona 28.0% Projected total: 48.5 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- BYU: 1684.1, Arizona: 1616.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor BYU Arizona ----------------- ----- ------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +1.1 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +13.4 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Arizona 19.3 -- BYU 29.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- BYU margin -12.1 -1.7 +10.4 +21.8 +32.4 Total points 27.4 37.5 48.5 60.2 70.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: BYU Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Bear Bachmeier QB Passing yards 148.8 64-210 Pass attempts 30.2 22-37 Completions 19.6 14-25 Passing TDs 0.59 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Rushing yards 19.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.34 29% 1+ LJ Martin RB Rushing yards 63.0 22-125 Carries 14.2 8-24 Rushing TDs 0.78 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Receiving yards 20.9 1-35 Receptions 3.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Sione Moa RB Rushing yards 35.4 -- Carries 9.2 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Receiving yards 16.7 -- Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jojo Phillips WR Receiving yards 29.6 -- Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Walker Lyons TE Receiving yards 26.8 3-42 Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Tiger Bachmeier WR Receiving yards 18.8 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cade Uluave LB Tackles 8.2 6-14 Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Faletau Satuala S Tackles 6.9 4-10 Bodie Schoonover DE Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ARIZONA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Noah Fifita QB Passing yards 231.5 147-285 Pass attempts 31.9 23-42 Completions 20.2 14-27 Passing TDs 1.79 83% 1+, 53% 2+ Rushing yards 24.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Antwan Roberts RB Rushing yards 53.8 13-103 Carries 10.6 5-18 Rushing TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 20.5 1-38 Receptions 2.7 2-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kedrick Reescano RB Rushing yards 47.6 6-81 Carries 10.2 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.77 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Receiving yards 11.7 -- Receptions 1.5 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chris Hunter WR Receiving yards 38.2 3-59 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Giovanni Richardson WR Receiving yards 35.1 -- Receptions 2.4 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Tre Spivey WR Receiving yards 32.2 -- Receptions 2.3 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.35 30% 1+ Cole Rusk TE Receiving yards 28.4 4-52 Receptions 2.7 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Taye Brown LB Tackles 8.3 6-11 Lee Molette III S Tackles 6.7 4-11 Everett Roussaw Jr. LB Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Myron Robinson LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ BYU recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Arizona recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 BYU 33 ARIZ 27 BYU 2024 ARIZ 19 BYU 41 BYU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10174