UCF at Pittsburgh NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 7:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Pittsburgh by 14.3 points, giving them a 79% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 51.5 combined points, with Pittsburgh at 32.8 and UCF at 18.5. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Pittsburgh's margin lands between -8.2 and +36.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Pittsburgh -14.3 / UCF +14.3 Moneyline: Pittsburgh -382 / UCF +382 Win probability: Pittsburgh 79.3% / UCF 20.7% Projected total: 51.5 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Pittsburgh: 1547.9, UCF: 1419.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Pittsburgh UCF ----------------- ---------- ----- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +2.9 -1.0 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +15.5 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: UCF 18.5 -- Pittsburgh 32.8 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Pittsburgh margin -8.2 +2.4 +14.3 +25.9 +36.5 Total points 29.9 40.2 51.4 62.7 72.5 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: PITTSBURGH Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Mason Heintschel QB Passing yards 187.5 103-270 Pass attempts 32.6 24-41 Completions 20.3 14-25 Passing TDs 1.30 73% 1+, 38% 2+ Rushing yards 11.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Ja'Kyrian Turner RB Rushing yards 60.9 20-123 Carries 12.5 7-19 Rushing TDs 0.72 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Receiving yards 19.6 0-33 Receptions 3.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ La'Vell Wright RB Rushing yards 46.1 5-90 Carries 9.0 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.72 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Receiving yards 13.4 -- Receptions 1.6 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Cataurus Hicks WR Rushing yards 2.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 36.6 1-73 Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Censere Lee WR Receiving yards 29.5 -- Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Elijah Lagg TE Receiving yards 27.3 3-45 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Bryce Yates WR Receiving yards 24.2 -- Receptions 1.9 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Braylan Lovelace LB Tackles 6.1 3-9 Cruce Brookins DB Tackles 5.4 3-10 Jimmy Scott DL Sacks 0.57 44% 1+, 11% 2+ Isaiah Neal DL Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ UCF Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Alonza Barnett III QB Passing yards 225.1 141-306 Pass attempts 27.9 19-39 Completions 16.2 10-22 Passing TDs 2.43 91% 1+, 70% 2+ Rushing yards 48.8 8-101 Rushing TDs 1.52 78% 1+, 45% 2+ Dylan Wade TE Receiving yards 62.1 38-131 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.79 55% 1+, 19% 2+ Duane Thomas Jr. WR Rushing yards 10.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 42.8 7-69 Receptions 4.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jonathan Bibbs WR Rushing yards 13.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 42.4 7-74 Receptions 2.9 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Waden Charles WR Receiving yards 36.4 1-64 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dylan Burk TE Receiving yards 30.9 7-45 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Duke Watson RB Rushing yards 27.5 -- Carries 9.8 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Receiving yards 5.9 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Agyeman Addae RB Rushing yards 26.8 -- Carries 6.6 1-8 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Lewis Carter LB Tackles 8.1 5-12 Rashad Henry LB Tackles 5.9 3-10 Horace Lockett DT Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Jahleel Culbreath LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Pittsburgh recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games UCF recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10175