Utah State at Washington NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 7:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Washington by 17.0 points, giving them a 83% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 51.4 combined points, with Washington at 34.4 and Utah State at 17.1. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Washington's margin lands between -4.7 and +39.0 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Washington -17.0 / Utah State +17.0 Moneyline: Washington -491 / Utah State +491 Win probability: Washington 83.1% / Utah State 16.9% Projected total: 51.4 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Washington: 1634.1, Utah State: 1439.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Washington Utah State ----------------- ---------- ---------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.0 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +15.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Utah State 17.1 -- Washington 34.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Washington margin -4.7 +5.5 +17.2 +28.9 +39.0 Total points 29.7 40.2 51.6 63.0 73.1 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: WASHINGTON Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Demond Williams Jr. QB Passing yards 291.7 207-412 Pass attempts 28.3 20-33 Completions 18.7 12-23 Passing TDs 2.71 93% 1+, 75% 2+ Rushing yards 52.8 12-116 Rushing TDs 0.64 47% 1+, 13% 2+ Christian Moss WR Receiving yards 55.1 19-95 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.29 26% 1+ Dezmen Roebuck WR Receiving yards 48.6 13-93 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.74 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Decker DeGraaf TE Receiving yards 48.1 24-86 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Jordan Washington RB Rushing yards 43.5 2-81 Carries 5.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Jayden Limar RB Rushing yards 42.3 1-74 Carries 8.8 3-13 Rushing TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Receiving yards 14.9 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chris Lawson WR Receiving yards 24.1 -- Receptions 1.9 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Xe'ree Alexander LB Tackles 7.1 4-10 Alex McLaughlin S Tackles 6.7 4-10 Dylan Robinson CB Sacks 0.14 13% 1+ Zaydrius Rainey-Sale LB Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ UTAH STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Bryson Barnes QB Passing yards 199.5 115-274 Pass attempts 28.7 20-34 Completions 16.5 10-21 Passing TDs 0.82 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Rushing yards 48.7 8-94 Rushing TDs 0.47 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Broc Lane TE Receiving yards 33.3 9-73 Receptions 3.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.27 23% 1+ Kahanu Davis WR Receiving yards 32.5 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Javen Jacobs RB Rushing yards 31.0 -- Carries 6.9 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Receiving yards 19.6 0-36 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Josh Sterzer TE Receiving yards 18.1 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Noah White RB Rushing yards 17.7 -- Carries 6.9 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 17.4 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Brevin Hamblin S Tackles 8.6 6-12 John Miller LB Tackles 8.2 6-11 Chris Joe LB Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Tyree Morris DT Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Washington recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Utah State recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10176