Alabama at Kentucky NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 7:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Alabama by 7.5 points, giving them a 67% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 40.6 combined points, with Kentucky at 16.4 and Alabama at 24.1. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Kentucky's margin lands between -30.0 and +14.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Kentucky +7.5 / Alabama -7.5 Moneyline: Kentucky +202 / Alabama -202 Win probability: Kentucky 33.1% / Alabama 66.8% Projected total: 40.6 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Kentucky: 1469.2, Alabama: 1683.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Kentucky Alabama ----------------- -------- ------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +3.8 +3.6 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +12.4 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Alabama 24.1 -- Kentucky 16.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Kentucky margin -30.0 -19.5 -7.6 +4.3 +14.9 Total points 19.0 29.3 40.3 51.9 62.3 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: KENTUCKY Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Kenny Minchey QB Passing yards 53.9 -- Pass attempts 10.7 2-14 Completions 7.3 1-10 Passing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Rushing yards 19.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.19 18% 1+ Xavier Daisy WR Receiving yards 36.9 1-57 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ DJ Miller WR Receiving yards 33.8 -- Receptions 2.9 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Jason Patterson RB Rushing yards 31.1 -- Carries 9.8 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Receiving yards 12.0 -- Receptions 2.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ CJ Baxter RB Rushing yards 26.9 -- Carries 8.9 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 11.6 -- Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Hardley Gilmore IV WR Receiving yards 25.3 -- Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Willie Rodriguez TE Receiving yards 24.1 0-46 Receptions 2.7 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Henry Boyer TE Receiving yards 17.6 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ty Bryant DB Tackles 5.9 4-9 Jordan Castell DB Tackles 5.8 4-10 Lorenzo Cowan LB Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Mi'Quise Humphrey-Grace DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ ALABAMA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Austin Mack QB Passing yards 138.1 54-203 Pass attempts 20.1 12-29 Completions 13.1 7-20 Passing TDs 0.65 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Ryan Coleman-Williams WR Receiving yards 58.4 23-95 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ AK Dear RB Rushing yards 49.6 8-93 Carries 7.1 2-9 Rushing TDs 0.35 29% 1+ Lotzeir Brooks WR Rushing yards 5.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 47.3 12-79 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Noah Rogers WR Receiving yards 44.3 9-68 Receptions 3.3 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Daniel Hill RB Rushing yards 37.9 -- Carries 9.3 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.65 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Receiving yards 22.6 3-51 Receptions 3.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Josh Ford TE Receiving yards 20.0 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Kaleb Edwards TE Receiving yards 18.7 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Caleb Woodson LB Tackles 6.3 4-9 Bray Hubbard DB Tackles 5.6 4-8 Yhonzae Pierre LB Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Devan Thompkins DL Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Kentucky recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Alabama recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ----- ------ 2023 ALA 49 UK 21 ALA ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10177