Eastern Michigan at Michigan State NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 7:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Michigan State by 1.5 points, giving them a 54% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 46.8 combined points, with Michigan State at 24.0 and Eastern Michigan at 22.6. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Michigan State's margin lands between -21.0 and +23.7 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Michigan State -1.5 / Eastern Michigan +1.5 Moneyline: Michigan State -115 / Eastern Michigan +115 Win probability: Michigan State 53.6% / Eastern Michigan 46.4% Projected total: 46.8 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Michigan State: 1391.0, Eastern Michigan: 1427.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Michigan State Eastern Michigan ----------------- -------------- ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.8 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector -3.5 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Eastern Michigan 22.6 -- Michigan State 24.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------- ----- ----- ---- ----- ----- Michigan State margin -21.0 -10.3 +1.1 +13.2 +23.7 Total points 25.1 35.2 46.5 57.7 68.1 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: MICHIGAN STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Alessio Milivojevic QB Passing yards 157.7 73-259 Pass attempts 25.3 16-41 Completions 15.9 10-26 Passing TDs 1.22 71% 1+, 35% 2+ Rushing yards 0.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Cam Edwards RB Rushing yards 88.8 48-140 Carries 13.3 8-18 Rushing TDs 1.67 81% 1+, 50% 2+ Receiving yards 31.0 12-54 Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Marvis Parrish RB Rushing yards 69.0 28-104 Carries 9.3 4-12 Rushing TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Receiving yards 20.8 1-37 Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chrishon McCray WR Receiving yards 40.3 5-61 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ KK Smith WR Receiving yards 34.0 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Dion Crawford LB Tackles 7.1 4-10 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Nikai Martinez DB Tackles 6.3 4-9 Eli Coenen DL Sacks 0.17 15% 1+ EASTERN MICHIGAN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Noah Kim QB Passing yards 251.6 167-325 Pass attempts 33.5 25-38 Completions 20.7 14-24 Passing TDs 2.19 89% 1+, 64% 2+ Rushing yards 17.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.58 44% 1+, 12% 2+ Harold Mack WR Receiving yards 62.3 27-140 Receptions 3.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Nick Devereaux WR Receiving yards 59.8 24-109 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 1.35 74% 1+, 39% 2+ Joey Mattord RB Rushing yards 52.5 11-77 Carries 7.4 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 20.9 1-35 Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Benson Prosper WR Rushing yards 16.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 34.5 -- Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tanner Lemaster TE Receiving yards 33.1 9-55 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Joshua Long TE Receiving yards 32.7 9-49 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Bryce Llewellyn DB Tackles 7.6 6-10 Zach Mowchan LB Tackles 6.4 4-11 Quincy Byas DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Barry Manning LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Michigan State recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Eastern Michigan recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10178