Maryland at UConn NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 7:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors UConn by 13.3 points, giving them a 78% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 67.8 combined points, with UConn at 40.7 and Maryland at 27.3. Simulating the game 10,000 times, UConn's margin lands between -8.9 and +35.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: UConn -13.3 / Maryland +13.3 Moneyline: UConn -347 / Maryland +347 Win probability: UConn 77.6% / Maryland 22.4% Projected total: 67.8 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- UConn: 1537.7, Maryland: 1388.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor UConn Maryland ----------------- ----- -------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +3.8 +2.2 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Maryland 27.3 -- UConn 40.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- UConn margin -8.9 +1.9 +13.5 +25.0 +35.4 Total points 46.3 56.8 68.0 79.4 89.5 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: UCONN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Kalieb Osborne QB Passing yards 113.9 30-183 Pass attempts 17.3 8-28 Completions 10.3 4-17 Passing TDs 0.59 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Rushing yards 35.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Dashun Reeder RB Rushing yards 70.8 30-124 Carries 9.1 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Kenji Christian RB Rushing yards 62.0 21-101 Carries 9.7 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Receiving yards 28.3 9-52 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Emanuel Ross WR Receiving yards 31.5 -- Receptions 2.8 0-5 Receiving TDs 0.29 26% 1+ Ryder Treadway WR Receiving yards 30.9 -- Receptions 2.3 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.63 47% 1+, 13% 2+ Shamar Porter WR Receiving yards 29.5 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.18 17% 1+ K'Von Sherman LB Tackles 7.2 4-10 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Luke Murphy LB Tackles 4.5 2-7 Esean Carter DT Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ MARYLAND Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Malik Washington QB Passing yards 258.7 174-378 Pass attempts 37.5 29-49 Completions 22.0 16-30 Passing TDs 1.16 68% 1+, 32% 2+ Rushing yards 39.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ DeJuan Williams RB Rushing yards 56.9 16-79 Carries 10.6 5-14 Rushing TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Receiving yards 38.3 19-78 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding WR Receiving yards 51.4 16-88 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Chris Durr Jr. WR Receiving yards 40.2 4-63 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.22 19% 1+ Kaleb Webb WR Receiving yards 38.8 3-65 Receptions 2.8 0-5 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Harry Dalton III RB Rushing yards 38.5 -- Carries 5.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dorian Fleming TE Receiving yards 37.5 14-59 Receptions 3.3 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Preston Howard TE Receiving yards 23.7 -- Receptions 2.2 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Daniel Wingate LB Tackles 7.6 4-10 Lavain Scruggs DB Tackles 6.1 4-9 Zahir Mathis DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Sidney Stewart DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ UConn recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Maryland recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ----- ------ 2024 CONN 7 MD 50 MD ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10179