Mississippi State at Minnesota NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 7:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Minnesota by 15.5 points, giving them a 81% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 52.6 combined points, with Minnesota at 34.0 and Mississippi State at 18.4. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Minnesota's margin lands between -6.5 and +37.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Minnesota -15.5 / Mississippi State +15.5 Moneyline: Minnesota -428 / Mississippi State +428 Win probability: Minnesota 81.1% / Mississippi State 18.9% Projected total: 52.6 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Minnesota: 1569.3, Mississippi State: 1400.2 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Minnesota Mississippi State ----------------- --------- ----------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +1.5 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +16.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Mississippi State 18.4 -- Minnesota 34.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ---------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Minnesota margin -6.5 +3.8 +15.6 +27.3 +37.9 Total points 30.9 41.1 52.5 63.9 74.0 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: MINNESOTA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Drake Lindsey QB Passing yards 193.3 109-262 Pass attempts 30.4 22-39 Completions 19.1 13-22 Passing TDs 1.64 80% 1+, 49% 2+ Rushing yards -6.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Darius Taylor RB Rushing yards 79.9 39-155 Carries 12.2 6-21 Rushing TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Receiving yards 34.5 15-63 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Zion Steptoe WR Rushing yards 25.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 47.1 11-78 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Javon Tracy WR Receiving yards 41.2 6-77 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Noah Jennings WR Receiving yards 38.6 3-60 Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kaden Helms TE Receiving yards 9.4 -- Receptions 1.2 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Maverick Baranowski LB Tackles 8.2 6-12 Andrew Marshall LB Tackles 6.8 4-9 Anthony Smith DL Sacks 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Karter Menz DL Sacks 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ MISSISSIPPI STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- AJ Swann QB Passing yards 213.1 129-362 Pass attempts 30.5 22-46 Completions 18.5 12-30 Passing TDs 1.25 71% 1+, 35% 2+ Rushing yards 5.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Anthony Evans III WR Rushing yards 16.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 71.7 36-111 Receptions 5.1 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.27 23% 1+ Fluff Bothwell RB Rushing yards 68.0 27-115 Carries 12.5 7-18 Rushing TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Receiving yards 18.1 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Marquis Johnson WR Receiving yards 40.8 5-68 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Xavier Gayten RB Rushing yards 37.6 -- Carries 6.3 1-8 Rushing TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Receiving yards 11.7 -- Receptions 1.5 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ayden Williams WR Receiving yards 31.2 -- Receptions 2.3 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Sam West TE Receiving yards 15.1 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Marcus Williams S Tackles 6.5 4-10 Isaac Smith S Tackles 6.4 4-10 Kalvin Dinkins DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Derion Gullette LB Sacks 0.21 19% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Minnesota recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Mississippi State recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10180