UNLV at North Texas NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 7:45 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors North Texas by 7.4 points, giving them a 67% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 78.3 combined points, with North Texas at 43.1 and UNLV at 35.5. Simulating the game 10,000 times, North Texas's margin lands between -14.3 and +29.8 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: North Texas -7.4 / UNLV +7.4 Moneyline: North Texas -199 / UNLV +199 Win probability: North Texas 66.6% / UNLV 33.4% Projected total: 78.3 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- North Texas: 1604.6, UNLV: 1576.0 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor North Texas UNLV ----------------- ----------- ----- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +0.5 +1.2 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +11.9 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: UNLV 35.5 -- North Texas 43.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------ ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- North Texas margin -14.3 -4.2 +7.4 +19.1 +29.8 Total points 57.5 67.6 78.7 89.6 99.7 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: NORTH TEXAS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Tayven Jackson QB Passing yards 179.8 95-249 Pass attempts 29.7 21-35 Completions 18.3 12-24 Passing TDs 0.83 57% 1+, 20% 2+ Rushing yards 4.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Corri Milliner WR Receiving yards 57.4 22-94 Receptions 4.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Dalton Carnes WR Receiving yards 29.2 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Aaron Alexander LB Tackles 8.0 5-12 Brec Long TE Receiving yards 7.6 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ David Onuoha DL Tackles 4.2 3-7 Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Udoka Ezeani DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ UNLV Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jackson Arnold QB Passing yards 135.6 51-203 Pass attempts 26.3 18-38 Completions 16.5 10-24 Passing TDs 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ Rushing yards 15.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.55 42% 1+, 11% 2+ Jai'Den Thomas RB Rushing yards 70.0 29-112 Carries 11.0 6-13 Rushing TDs 0.65 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Receiving yards 26.1 7-55 Receptions 3.1 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaylon Glover RB Rushing yards 55.9 15-107 Carries 7.9 2-12 Rushing TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Receiving yards 17.5 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Taz Reddicks WR Receiving yards 43.3 8-89 Receptions 3.6 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Taeshaun Lyons WR Receiving yards 31.4 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Amorion Walker WR Receiving yards 30.2 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Blesyng Alualu-Tuiolemotu LB Tackles 5.3 2-8 Jake Pope S Tackles 4.9 2-8 Lucas Conti DL Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Elias Rudolph LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ North Texas recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games UNLV recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10181