Memphis at Boise State NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Boise State by 8.2 points, giving them a 68% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 52.0 combined points, with Boise State at 30.0 and Memphis at 21.9. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Boise State's margin lands between -13.9 and +30.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Boise State -8.2 / Memphis +8.2 Moneyline: Boise State -215 / Memphis +215 Win probability: Boise State 68.2% / Memphis 31.8% Projected total: 52.0 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Boise State: 1566.1, Memphis: 1515.4 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Boise State Memphis ----------------- ----------- ------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +2.8 -2.1 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +12.4 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Memphis 21.9 -- Boise State 30.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------ ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Boise State margin -13.9 -3.6 +8.0 +19.8 +30.4 Total points 30.0 40.4 52.0 63.4 73.4 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: BOISE STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Maddux Madsen QB Passing yards 219.2 135-351 Pass attempts 27.4 18-39 Completions 16.6 10-25 Passing TDs 1.48 77% 1+, 44% 2+ Rushing yards 7.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Dylan Riley RB Rushing yards 52.3 11-103 Carries 13.0 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.59 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Receiving yards 9.8 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Ben Ford WR Receiving yards 47.9 12-73 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.52 40% 1+, 10% 2+ Sire Gaines RB Rushing yards 46.4 5-83 Carries 11.4 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.59 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Receiving yards 11.2 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Quinton Brown WR Rushing yards 13.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 42.8 7-75 Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.52 40% 1+, 10% 2+ Cameron Bates WR Rushing yards 25.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Receiving yards 41.1 6-68 Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Matt Wagner TE Receiving yards 25.7 2-50 Receptions 2.2 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Boen Phelps LB Tackles 5.5 2-7 Jaden Mickey DB Tackles 3.9 2-6 Sterling Lane II LB Sacks 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Jayden Virgin-Morgan LB Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ MEMPHIS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Dallan Hayden RB Rushing yards 54.0 13-85 Carries 10.0 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Receiving yards 14.9 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Manny Covey RB Rushing yards 52.5 11-93 Carries 8.6 3-13 Rushing TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Receiving yards 24.7 5-43 Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Hunter Tipton TE Receiving yards 41.2 17-61 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Tychaun Chapman WR Receiving yards 38.4 3-62 Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Brady Kluse WR Receiving yards 28.0 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Bryce Dorsey WR Receiving yards 24.9 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mike Montgomery LB Tackles 7.8 5-11 Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ J'Mond Tapp DL Tackles 5.2 4-7 Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Boise State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Memphis recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------ ------ 2023 BOIS 32 MEM 35 MEM ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10183