Jacksonville State at Ohio NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Ohio by 14.3 points, giving them a 79% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 42.5 combined points, with Ohio at 28.1 and Jacksonville State at 14.0. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Ohio's margin lands between -8.1 and +36.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Joseph Watson (Questionable). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Ohio -14.3 / Jacksonville State +14.3 Moneyline: Ohio -383 / Jacksonville State +383 Win probability: Ohio 79.3% / Jacksonville State 20.7% Projected total: 42.5 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Ohio: 1606.5, Jacksonville State: 1477.0 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Ohio Jacksonville State ----------------- ----- ------------------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +1.3 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +15.9 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Jacksonville State 14.0 -- Ohio 28.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Ohio margin -8.1 +2.3 +14.2 +25.6 +36.4 Total points 20.6 30.9 42.1 53.3 63.7 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: OHIO Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Duncan Brune RB Rushing yards 51.9 11-96 Carries 10.2 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.67 49% 1+, 15% 2+ Receiving yards 13.1 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Victor Rosa RB Rushing yards 14.5 -- Carries 3.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 23.1 4-52 Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Eian Pugh WR Receiving yards 23.1 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dom Dorwart WR Receiving yards 15.3 -- Receptions 2.3 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Michael Molnar LB Tackles 7.1 4-10 Charlie Christopher LB Tackles 6.9 4-10 Derek Reagans DT Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Joseph Marsh DE Sacks 0.29 25% 1+ JACKSONVILLE STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Caden Creel QB Passing yards 157.2 73-202 Pass attempts 24.0 16-30 Completions 13.9 8-17 Passing TDs 0.89 59% 1+, 22% 2+ Rushing yards 60.3 20-117 Rushing TDs 0.63 47% 1+, 13% 2+ Deondre Johnson WR Receiving yards 76.3 41-118 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.76 53% 1+, 18% 2+ Jalen Likely RB Rushing yards 45.0 4-74 Carries 9.8 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 15.6 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ronnel Johnson WR Receiving yards 40.8 5-73 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Justus Savage RB Rushing yards 39.8 -- Carries 8.7 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Franklin Baret Jr. WR Receiving yards 20.4 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mac Sanders LB Tackles 6.9 4-10 Walker O'Steen LB Tackles 6.3 4-10 Tae Floyd DL Sacks 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ Quay Hood DL Sacks 0.30 26% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Ohio recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Jacksonville State recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2024 OHIO 30 JXST 27 OHIO Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ------------- --- ---- ------------ Joseph Watson OL OHIO Questionable ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10184