Buffalo at Florida International NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Florida International by 7.4 points, giving them a 67% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 57.7 combined points, with Florida International at 32.6 and Buffalo at 25.4. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Florida International's margin lands between -14.8 and +29.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Florida International -7.4 / Buffalo +7.4 Moneyline: Florida International -200 / Buffalo +200 Win probability: Florida International 66.7% / Buffalo 33.3% Projected total: 57.7 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Florida International: 1466.6, Buffalo: 1399.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Florida International Buffalo ----------------- --------------------- ------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +0.6 +0.4 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +8.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Buffalo 25.4 -- Florida International 32.6 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ---------------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Florida International margin -14.8 -4.6 +7.3 +18.7 +29.5 Total points 36.7 46.8 58.1 69.4 79.0 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- JJ Kohl QB Passing yards 172.3 88-266 Pass attempts 28.2 20-43 Completions 17.4 12-27 Passing TDs 1.54 79% 1+, 46% 2+ Rushing yards 12.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Sterling Joseph RB Rushing yards 62.7 22-145 Carries 6.6 1-8 Rushing TDs 0.54 42% 1+, 10% 2+ Anthony Carrie RB Rushing yards 47.0 6-62 Carries 9.3 4-11 Rushing TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Receiving yards 14.5 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jojo Stone WR Rushing yards 5.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 35.9 0-49 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.26 22% 1+ Maguire Anderson WR Receiving yards 31.9 -- Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Kyle McNeal WR Receiving yards 29.9 -- Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Jackson Verdugo TE Receiving yards 23.2 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Shamir Sterlin DB Tackles 5.6 4-9 Josiah Taylor LB Tackles 5.3 2-8 Kenton Simmons DE Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Dante Anderson DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ BUFFALO Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Terrance Shelton Jr. RB Rushing yards 48.4 7-76 Carries 8.9 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Receiving yards 18.1 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chance Morrow WR Receiving yards 40.9 5-89 Receptions 3.5 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.70 50% 1+, 16% 2+ Jasaiah Gathings WR Receiving yards 39.0 3-64 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Patrick Clacks III WR Receiving yards 19.4 -- Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ James McNeil Jr. RB Rushing yards 19.0 -- Carries 3.6 4-4 Rushing TDs 0.47 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Miles Greer S Tackles 5.9 4-10 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ SaVeon Brown LB Tackles 4.8 2-8 Cornell Evans DT Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Florida International recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Buffalo recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10185