Bowling Green at Nebraska NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Nebraska by 12.7 points, giving them a 77% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 41.8 combined points, with Nebraska at 27.0 and Bowling Green at 14.8. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Nebraska's margin lands between -10.0 and +34.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Nebraska -12.7 / Bowling Green +12.7 Moneyline: Nebraska -329 / Bowling Green +329 Win probability: Nebraska 76.7% / Bowling Green 23.3% Projected total: 41.8 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Nebraska: 1494.0, Bowling Green: 1348.9 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Nebraska Bowling Green ----------------- -------- ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +1.6 +0.2 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +15.2 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Bowling Green 14.8 -- Nebraska 27.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- Nebraska margin -10.0 +0.5 +12.1 +24.0 +34.4 Total points 20.5 30.4 41.9 53.0 63.3 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: NEBRASKA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Anthony Colandrea QB Passing yards 253.8 170-318 Pass attempts 31.3 22-41 Completions 20.0 14-27 Passing TDs 1.56 79% 1+, 46% 2+ Rushing yards 40.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.84 57% 1+, 20% 2+ Nyziah Hunter WR Receiving yards 58.6 23-107 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Kwazi Gilmer WR Receiving yards 47.6 12-81 Receptions 3.9 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Luke Lindenmeyer TE Receiving yards 42.9 19-74 Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Mekhi Nelson RB Rushing yards 38.4 -- Carries 7.0 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Receiving yards 24.6 5-58 Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Quinn Clark WR Receiving yards 36.9 1-56 Receptions 1.2 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Isaiah Mozee RB Rushing yards 26.9 -- Carries 5.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 24.8 5-58 Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dexter Foster LB Tackles 7.2 4-10 Owen Chambliss LB Tackles 6.1 3-10 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Jahsear Whittington DT Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ BOWLING GREEN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Hunter Najm QB Passing yards 94.9 11-135 Pass attempts 20.3 12-29 Completions 10.4 4-14 Passing TDs 0.71 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Rushing yards 9.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Austyn Dendy RB Rushing yards 85.7 45-113 Carries 16.0 10-20 Rushing TDs 1.23 71% 1+, 35% 2+ Receiving yards 24.7 5-36 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ Brennan Ridley WR Receiving yards 31.8 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Winn Sharp WR Receiving yards 12.7 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kal-El Pascal S Tackles 6.2 4-9 Preston EstoEsta S Tackles 4.3 2-5 Myles Bradley DE Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Eriq George DE Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Nebraska recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Bowling Green recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10186