Tennessee at Georgia Tech NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Georgia Tech by 1.2 points, giving them a 53% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 66.3 combined points, with Georgia Tech at 33.8 and Tennessee at 32.5. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Georgia Tech's margin lands between -21.0 and +23.8 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Georgia Tech -1.2 / Tennessee +1.2 Moneyline: Georgia Tech -112 / Tennessee +112 Win probability: Georgia Tech 52.9% / Tennessee 47.1% Projected total: 66.3 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Georgia Tech: 1537.7, Tennessee: 1584.2 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Georgia Tech Tennessee ----------------- ------------ --------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue -0.7 +2.5 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +4.8 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Tennessee 32.5 -- Georgia Tech 33.8 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------- ----- ----- ---- ----- ----- Georgia Tech margin -21.0 -10.4 +1.2 +13.2 +23.8 Total points 45.2 55.0 66.3 77.6 87.7 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: GEORGIA TECH Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Justice Haynes RB Rushing yards 85.8 45-126 Carries 13.9 8-19 Rushing TDs 2.00 86% 1+, 59% 2+ Receiving yards 14.7 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Alberto Mendoza QB Passing yards 78.0 -- Pass attempts 7.7 -- Completions 4.5 -- Passing TDs 0.59 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Rushing yards 32.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Malachi Hosley RB Rushing yards 56.5 15-107 Carries 9.8 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.53 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Receiving yards 18.9 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jordan Allen WR Rushing yards 27.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Receiving yards 36.3 1-77 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Gavin Harris TE Receiving yards 33.5 10-54 Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ E.J. Lightsey LB Tackles 6.3 4-9 Kyle Efford LB Tackles 6.1 3-9 Cayman Spaulding LB Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Brayden Manley DE Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ TENNESSEE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Ryan Staub QB Passing yards 177.6 93-289 Pass attempts 23.8 15-40 Completions 13.8 8-23 Passing TDs 0.72 52% 1+, 16% 2+ Rushing yards 21.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.32 28% 1+ DeSean Bishop RB Rushing yards 85.3 44-130 Carries 14.1 8-18 Rushing TDs 1.71 82% 1+, 51% 2+ Receiving yards 26.2 7-53 Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Braylon Staley WR Receiving yards 65.0 29-108 Receptions 4.8 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Mike Matthews WR Receiving yards 58.9 23-88 Receptions 3.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Javin Gordon RB Rushing yards 46.5 5-69 Carries 9.6 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Receiving yards 22.4 3-39 Receptions 2.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Ethan Davis TE Receiving yards 46.3 22-85 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.53 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Trent Thomas TE Receiving yards 20.5 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Radarious Jackson WR Receiving yards 18.2 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ DJ Burks DB Tackles 7.3 5-10 Arion Carter LB Tackles 7.2 4-12 Jordan Norman DL Sacks 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ Daevin Hobbs DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Georgia Tech recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Tennessee recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10187