Georgia State at Kennesaw State NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Kennesaw State by 19.6 points, giving them a 86% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 59.7 combined points, with Kennesaw State at 39.8 and Georgia State at 20.4. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Kennesaw State's margin lands between -2.8 and +41.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Kennesaw State -19.6 / Georgia State +19.6 Moneyline: Kennesaw State -625 / Georgia State +625 Win probability: Kennesaw State 86.2% / Georgia State 13.8% Projected total: 59.7 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Kennesaw State: 1515.8, Georgia State: 1270.0 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Kennesaw State Georgia State ----------------- -------------- ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +2.3 +2.5 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +12.8 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Georgia State 20.4 -- Kennesaw State 39.8 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Kennesaw State margin -2.8 +7.6 +19.8 +31.2 +41.4 Total points 38.7 48.9 60.2 71.4 82.0 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: KENNESAW STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Rickie Collins QB Passing yards 200.6 116-312 Pass attempts 29.4 21-43 Completions 16.9 10-25 Passing TDs 1.04 65% 1+, 28% 2+ Rushing yards 24.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Zion Booker WR Receiving yards 46.8 11-76 Receptions 4.9 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Javon Rogers WR Receiving yards 41.2 6-84 Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Gerard Bullock Jr. TE Receiving yards 33.8 10-55 Receptions 2.7 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Davis Bryson WR Rushing yards 2.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 24.4 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Baron Hopson LB Tackles 9.4 6-13 Tywon Christopher LB Tackles 8.3 6-11 Devin Morgan DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Kody Jones DB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ GEORGIA STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Cameran Brown QB Passing yards 166.7 82-265 Pass attempts 24.1 16-38 Completions 15.2 9-24 Passing TDs 1.25 71% 1+, 36% 2+ Rushing yards 31.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Grant Hollier TE Receiving yards 41.6 18-62 Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Dennis Murray Jr. RB Rushing yards 32.2 -- Carries 5.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 28.2 9-60 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Kyle Washington WR Receiving yards 26.8 -- Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ DJ Riles WR Receiving yards 25.1 -- Receptions 2.8 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Jaylin Marshall WR Receiving yards 23.6 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson DE Tackles 4.7 3-8 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Jaden Kelly LB Tackles 4.4 2-6 Richard Kramer DE Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Kennesaw State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Georgia State recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10188