Middle Tennessee at Marshall NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Marshall by 14.3 points, giving them a 79% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 69.4 combined points, with Marshall at 41.7 and Middle Tennessee at 27.5. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Marshall's margin lands between -7.9 and +36.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Marshall -14.3 / Middle Tennessee +14.3 Moneyline: Marshall -381 / Middle Tennessee +381 Win probability: Marshall 79.2% / Middle Tennessee 20.8% Projected total: 69.4 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Marshall: 1487.9, Middle Tennessee: 1337.4 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Marshall Middle Tennessee ----------------- -------- ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 -0.3 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +12.4 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Middle Tennessee 27.5 -- Marshall 41.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Marshall margin -7.9 +2.5 +14.2 +25.9 +36.1 Total points 47.8 57.8 69.3 80.4 90.5 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: MARSHALL Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Carlos Del Rio-Wilson QB Passing yards 239.3 155-325 Pass attempts 28.3 20-36 Completions 18.2 12-24 Passing TDs 1.85 84% 1+, 55% 2+ Rushing yards 69.3 29-106 Rushing TDs 0.67 49% 1+, 15% 2+ Adrian Norton WR Receiving yards 53.2 18-112 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.86 58% 1+, 21% 2+ De'Andre Tamarez WR Receiving yards 46.9 11-71 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Jo'Shon Barbie RB Rushing yards 40.4 -- Carries 9.0 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.55 42% 1+, 10% 2+ Receiving yards 11.6 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Toby Payne TE Receiving yards 37.2 13-74 Receptions 3.3 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw WR Receiving yards 36.2 1-65 Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Boogie Trotter CB Tackles 6.4 4-10 Javae Gilmore LB Tackles 6.1 3-9 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Braydin Ward DL Sacks 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ MIDDLE TENNESSEE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Roman Gagliano QB Passing yards 271.3 187-434 Pass attempts 31.3 22-45 Completions 18.9 12-28 Passing TDs 1.95 86% 1+, 58% 2+ Rushing yards 45.3 5-94 Rushing TDs 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Cam'ron Lacy WR Rushing yards 16.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 69.5 34-123 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Landon Collins WR Receiving yards 60.6 25-97 Receptions 4.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ DJ Taylor RB Rushing yards 48.0 7-80 Carries 6.0 0-7 Rushing TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Receiving yards 16.5 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.22 19% 1+ Antonio Martin RB Rushing yards 47.7 7-89 Carries 6.6 1-8 Rushing TDs 0.22 19% 1+ AJ Jones WR Receiving yards 37.4 2-56 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.82 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Jackson Lowe CB Tackles 4.4 2-6 Reggie Johnson LB Tackles 4.1 1-6 Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Zeion Simpson-Smith DT Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Marshall recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Middle Tennessee recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 MRSH 42 MTSU 28 MRSH ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10189