South Alabama at Tulane NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Tulane by 17.0 points, giving them a 83% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 58.5 combined points, with Tulane at 37.7 and South Alabama at 20.8. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Tulane's margin lands between -5.5 and +39.0 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Tulane -17.0 / South Alabama +17.0 Moneyline: Tulane -489 / South Alabama +489 Win probability: Tulane 83.0% / South Alabama 17.0% Projected total: 58.5 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Tulane: 1619.4, South Alabama: 1416.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Tulane South Alabama ----------------- ------ ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +3.1 +2.6 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +7.7 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: South Alabama 20.8 -- Tulane 37.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Tulane margin -5.5 +5.2 +16.9 +28.5 +39.0 Total points 37.1 47.7 58.6 69.8 79.8 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: TULANE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Zeon Chriss-Gremillion QB Passing yards 108.9 25-161 Pass attempts 17.6 9-25 Completions 7.7 2-10 Passing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Jamauri McClure RB Rushing yards 62.4 21-112 Carries 10.9 6-19 Rushing TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Receiving yards 14.6 -- Receptions 1.5 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Anthony Brown-Stephens WR Rushing yards 11.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 56.0 20-89 Receptions 3.9 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Maurice Turner RB Rushing yards 39.2 -- Carries 8.0 2-13 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Garrett Mmahat WR Receiving yards 31.9 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Zycarl Lewis Jr. WR Receiving yards 31.7 -- Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Dawson Johnson TE Receiving yards 13.6 -- Receptions 1.8 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Chris Rodgers LB Tackles 7.5 4-9 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Dickson Agu LB Tackles 6.9 4-10 TJ Smith DB Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ SOUTH ALABAMA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Bishop Davenport QB Passing yards 214.3 130-293 Pass attempts 25.7 17-32 Completions 16.9 10-20 Passing TDs 0.83 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Rushing yards 40.2 -- Rushing TDs 1.11 67% 1+, 30% 2+ Keenan Phillips RB Rushing yards 45.4 4-56 Carries 11.7 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Receiving yards 11.1 -- Receptions 2.0 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Brendan Jenkins WR Receiving yards 38.7 3-58 Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ PJ Martin RB Rushing yards 38.1 -- Carries 9.2 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Receiving yards 16.9 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Anthony Eager WR Receiving yards 38.1 2-71 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Micah Woods WR Receiving yards 25.3 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.16 14% 1+ Rod Gibbs TE Receiving yards 16.7 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Tirrell Johnson LB Tackles 5.5 2-8 Caleb Dozier LB Tackles 5.3 2-9 Emmanuel Waller DL Sacks 0.14 13% 1+ Tre'Mon Henry LB Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Tulane recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games South Alabama recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 TULN 33 USA 31 TULN 2023 USA 17 TULN 37 TULN ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10190