Tulsa at Sam Houston NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Sam Houston by 3.4 points, giving them a 58% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 55.1 combined points, with Sam Houston at 29.1 and Tulsa at 25.8. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Sam Houston's margin lands between -19.1 and +25.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Sam Houston -3.4 / Tulsa +3.4 Moneyline: Sam Houston -138 / Tulsa +138 Win probability: Sam Houston 57.9% / Tulsa 42.1% Projected total: 55.1 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Sam Houston: 1295.1, Tulsa: 1294.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Sam Houston Tulsa ----------------- ----------- ----- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.9 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +9.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Tulsa 25.8 -- Sam Houston 29.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------ ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Sam Houston margin -19.1 -8.3 +3.2 +15.2 +25.6 Total points 33.6 43.7 54.6 66.1 76.5 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: SAM HOUSTON Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Landyn Locke QB Passing yards 190.5 106-314 Pass attempts 26.8 18-42 Completions 15.0 9-24 Passing TDs 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Rushing yards 2.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chris Reed WR Receiving yards 56.7 21-80 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.77 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Landan Brown RB Rushing yards 52.3 11-93 Carries 9.5 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Receiving yards 25.3 6-46 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Alton McCaskill RB Rushing yards 50.2 9-77 Carries 11.1 6-14 Rushing TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Receiving yards 17.3 -- Receptions 2.5 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Grady O'Neill WR Receiving yards 44.6 9-80 Receptions 3.9 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Tim Burns Jr. WR Receiving yards 35.4 -- Receptions 1.9 -- Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Max Whisner TE Receiving yards 30.5 6-56 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Tyler Bailey S Tackles 4.8 2-7 Dylan Frazier DT Tackles 4.5 3-9 Chauncey Chidi DE Sacks 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Dean Ford LB Sacks 0.29 25% 1+ TULSA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Baylor Hayes QB Passing yards 286.9 203-351 Pass attempts 31.7 23-41 Completions 18.7 12-24 Passing TDs 1.37 74% 1+, 40% 2+ Rushing yards 28.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Josh Smith WR Receiving yards 62.2 26-122 Receptions 3.3 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Trequan Jones RB Rushing yards 60.1 19-100 Carries 8.9 4-12 Rushing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Receiving yards 9.6 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ David Wells Jr. WR Receiving yards 56.5 21-107 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ DJ McKinney RB Rushing yards 51.4 10-74 Carries 9.9 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.99 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Receiving yards 24.4 5-52 Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Grayson Tempest WR Receiving yards 48.4 13-84 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.14 14% 1+ Jewlyen Roberts TE Receiving yards 16.4 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Devin Hightower LB Tackles 6.7 4-9 Zach Williams S Tackles 5.8 4-10 Thomas Davis DL Sacks 0.29 25% 1+ Dax Collins LB Sacks 0.17 15% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Sam Houston recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Tulsa recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10191