San Diego State at UCLA NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 11:15 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors San Diego State by 3.6 points, giving them a 58% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 46.7 combined points, with UCLA at 21.5 and San Diego State at 25.1. Simulating the game 10,000 times, UCLA's margin lands between -26.1 and +18.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: UCLA +3.6 / San Diego State -3.6 Moneyline: UCLA +140 / San Diego State -140 Win probability: UCLA 41.7% / San Diego State 58.3% Projected total: 46.7 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- UCLA: 1423.1, San Diego State: 1519.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor UCLA San Diego State ----------------- ----- --------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.7 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector -7.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: San Diego State 25.1 -- UCLA 21.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- UCLA margin -26.1 -15.5 -3.9 +8.3 +18.9 Total points 25.1 35.4 46.5 57.9 68.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: UCLA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Nico Iamaleava QB Passing yards 148.3 64-193 Pass attempts 28.6 20-34 Completions 18.3 12-23 Passing TDs 1.15 68% 1+, 32% 2+ Rushing yards 34.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.35 29% 1+ Wayne Knight RB Rushing yards 71.0 30-120 Carries 14.0 8-17 Rushing TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 25.9 6-53 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.08 7% 1+ Leland Smith WR Receiving yards 47.5 12-92 Receptions 4.0 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Landon Ellis WR Receiving yards 44.6 9-77 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Jaivian Thomas RB Rushing yards 38.2 -- Carries 10.0 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.08 7% 1+ Receiving yards 13.0 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mikey Matthews WR Receiving yards 25.3 -- Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Josh Phifer TE Receiving yards 17.7 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Brayden Loftin TE Receiving yards 14.1 -- Receptions 1.2 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Drew Spinogatti LB Tackles 5.8 3-11 Cole Martin DB Tackles 4.9 2-7 Sahir West DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Aiden Gobaira DL Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ SAN DIEGO STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jayden Denegal QB Passing yards 136.5 52-202 Pass attempts 21.4 12-27 Completions 12.3 6-15 Passing TDs 0.85 57% 1+, 21% 2+ Rushing yards 11.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Lucky Sutton RB Rushing yards 106.3 65-159 Carries 16.0 10-21 Rushing TDs 0.93 61% 1+, 24% 2+ Receiving yards 12.7 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Christian Washington RB Rushing yards 72.6 32-121 Carries 9.1 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Receiving yards 24.1 5-41 Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Jordan Napier WR Rushing yards 11.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Receiving yards 44.2 9-93 Receptions 4.4 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Donovan Brown WR Rushing yards 5.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 35.6 -- Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Jacob Bostick WR Receiving yards 29.2 -- Receptions 3.3 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.73 52% 1+, 16% 2+ Jackson Ford TE Receiving yards 13.1 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Jalen Thomeson S Tackles 6.8 4-9 Dalesean Staley S Tackles 6.3 4-9 Kai Wallin DL Sacks 0.17 15% 1+ Amari Comier DL Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ UCLA recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games San Diego State recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2023 UCLA 35 SDSU 10 UCLA ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10192