Navy at Florida Atlantic NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Navy by 15.2 points, giving them a 81% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 70.6 combined points, with Florida Atlantic at 27.5 and Navy at 42.9. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Florida Atlantic's margin lands between -37.5 and +6.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Florida Atlantic +15.2 / Navy -15.2 Moneyline: Florida Atlantic +414 / Navy -414 Win probability: Florida Atlantic 19.5% / Navy 80.5% Projected total: 70.6 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Florida Atlantic: 1349.1, Navy: 1640.9 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Florida Atlantic Navy ----------------- ---------------- ---- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +1.2 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector -2.7 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Navy 42.9 -- Florida Atlantic 27.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------------- ----- ----- ----- ---- ---- Florida Atlantic margin -37.5 -26.9 -15.2 -3.8 +6.5 Total points 48.6 59.2 70.4 81.6 92.1 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: FLORIDA ATLANTIC Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Caden Veltkamp QB Passing yards 288.5 204-392 Pass attempts 36.3 28-49 Completions 24.0 18-34 Passing TDs 2.09 88% 1+, 62% 2+ Rushing yards 5.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Easton Messer WR Receiving yards 76.9 41-115 Receptions 6.6 4-9 Receiving TDs 0.78 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Dominique Henry WR Receiving yards 55.4 20-108 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Kaden Shields-Dutton RB Rushing yards 41.8 1-70 Carries 9.9 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.64 47% 1+, 13% 2+ Receiving yards 14.7 -- Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.14 14% 1+ RJ Garcia II WR Receiving yards 33.8 -- Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Brooks Johnson TE Receiving yards 31.6 8-51 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Ethan Ervin RB Rushing yards 15.7 -- Carries 6.0 0-7 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Leon Hart Jr. LB Tackles 8.2 5-12 Jayden Sweeney S Tackles 4.8 2-7 Jay Crable DB Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Josh Roberts DB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ NAVY Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Braxton Woodson QB Passing yards 60.3 -- Pass attempts 13.2 4-17 Completions 4.9 -- Passing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Rushing yards 45.2 5-109 Rushing TDs 0.91 60% 1+, 23% 2+ Luke Hutchison WR Receiving yards 39.9 4-68 Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.84 57% 1+, 20% 2+ Joshua Guerin WR Receiving yards 30.3 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Giuseppe Sessi S Tackles 7.4 5-10 Coleman Cauley LB Tackles 7.3 4-11 Griffen Willis DT Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Xavyer Arrington DL Sacks 0.17 15% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Florida Atlantic recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Navy recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------- ------ 2025 FAU 32 NAVY 42 NAVY ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10193