Texas Tech at Oregon State NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Texas Tech by 21.2 points, giving them a 88% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 42.3 combined points, with Oregon State at 10.5 and Texas Tech at 31.5. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Oregon State's margin lands between -42.9 and +1.3 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Oregon State +21.2 / Texas Tech -21.2 Moneyline: Oregon State +728 / Texas Tech -728 Win probability: Oregon State 12.1% / Texas Tech 87.9% Projected total: 42.3 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Oregon State: 1280.6, Texas Tech: 1708.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Oregon State Texas Tech ----------------- ------------ ---------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +3.0 -0.1 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +15.3 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Texas Tech 31.5 -- Oregon State 10.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------- ----- ----- ----- ---- ---- Oregon State margin -42.9 -32.7 -21.0 -9.2 +1.3 Total points 20.5 31.1 42.2 53.0 63.1 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: OREGON STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Maalik Murphy QB Passing yards 177.9 94-308 Pass attempts 29.3 20-47 Completions 17.4 11-30 Passing TDs 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Rushing yards -1.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Gabe Milbourn TE Receiving yards 30.4 6-56 Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Eddie Freauff WR Receiving yards 26.8 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Cornell Hatcher Jr. RB Rushing yards 25.0 -- Carries 8.7 3-14 Rushing TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Receiving yards 8.6 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ DeCorion Temple TE Receiving yards 23.5 -- Receptions 2.5 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.27 23% 1+ Malachi Durant WR Receiving yards 11.9 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ AJ Newberry RB Rushing yards 11.3 -- Carries 3.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Aiden Sullivan LB Tackles 7.1 4-11 Takari Hickle LB Tackles 4.2 2-7 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Jacob Schuster DT Sacks 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ TEXAS TECH Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Will Hammond QB Passing yards 152.1 68-232 Pass attempts 22.5 14-34 Completions 13.7 8-21 Passing TDs 1.20 70% 1+, 34% 2+ Rushing yards 36.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Kenny Johnson WR Receiving yards 65.5 30-112 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ Cameron Dickey RB Rushing yards 56.9 16-85 Carries 12.9 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.74 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Receiving yards 14.7 -- Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Donte Lee Jr. WR Receiving yards 55.0 19-86 Receptions 3.3 1-6 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ J'Koby Williams RB Rushing yards 55.0 14-93 Carries 11.1 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Receiving yards 19.8 0-39 Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Terrance Carter Jr. TE Receiving yards 52.6 29-96 Receptions 3.8 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Malcolm Simmons WR Rushing yards 23.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 47.2 12-99 Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Jett Carpenter TE Receiving yards 43.0 19-78 Receptions 3.0 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ Ben Roberts LB Tackles 6.8 4-12 Austin Romaine LB Tackles 6.8 4-10 Trey White LB Sacks 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ Jamond Mathis LB Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Oregon State recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Texas Tech recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------ ------ 2025 ORST 14 TTU 45 TTU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10194