Iowa State at Iowa NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Iowa by 11.3 points, giving them a 74% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 42.3 combined points, with Iowa at 26.8 and Iowa State at 15.5. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Iowa favored by 13.5 points, a 2.2-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Iowa's margin lands between -10.7 and +33.3 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Iowa -11.3 / Iowa State +11.3 Moneyline: Iowa -288 / Iowa State +288 Win probability: Iowa 74.2% / Iowa State 25.8% Projected total: 42.3 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Iowa: 1685.6, Iowa State: 1577.0 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Iowa Iowa State ----------------- ----- ---------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +2.6 +2.5 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +10.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Iowa -13.5 / Iowa State +13.5 Consensus moneyline: Iowa -630 / Iowa State +450 Market no-vig win probability: Iowa 82.6% / Iowa State 17.4% Spread range across books: -13.5 to -13.0 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:04.027006+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Iowa EV% Iowa State EV% ---------- ---- ------ ---------- ------ betrivers -910 -17.6% +500 +54.6% draftkings -650 -14.4% +470 +46.9% fanduel -630 -14.0% +450 +41.7% mybookieag -649 -14.3% +420 +34.0% Spread: Book Iowa Iowa State ---------- ------------ ------------ betrivers -13.0 (-110) +13.0 (-113) draftkings -11.5 (-108) +11.5 (-112) fanduel -13.5 (-110) +13.5 (-110) mybookieag -12.5 (-110) +12.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Iowa -11.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -13.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Iowa State 15.5 -- Iowa 26.8 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- Iowa margin -10.7 -0.3 +11.3 +23.0 +33.3 Total points 20.5 30.8 42.2 53.9 64.1 Probability Iowa covers the market spread: 45.1% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: IOWA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Kamari Moulton RB Rushing yards 64.2 23-71 Carries 14.7 9-18 Rushing TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 12.9 -- Receptions 2.5 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ DJ Vonnahme TE Receiving yards 46.7 23-101 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Reece Vander Zee WR Receiving yards 36.2 1-57 Receptions 2.3 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Nathan McNeil RB Rushing yards 31.2 -- Carries 8.7 3-13 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 16.1 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dayton Howard WR Receiving yards 25.9 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.16 14% 1+ Zach Ortwerth TE Receiving yards 21.0 -- Receptions 1.8 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tyler Brown DB Tackles 5.8 4-10 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Zach Lutmer DB Tackles 5.3 3-7 Lance Ingold DL Sacks 0.30 26% 1+ IOWA STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jaylen Raynor QB Passing yards 218.5 134-268 Pass attempts 36.5 28-44 Completions 23.8 18-30 Passing TDs 1.21 70% 1+, 34% 2+ Rushing yards 31.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.47 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Cameron Pettaway RB Rushing yards 52.5 11-86 Carries 9.5 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 27.0 8-93 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Omari Hayes WR Receiving yards 39.6 4-62 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Carter Pabst WR Receiving yards 38.2 3-68 Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Arnold Barnes III RB Rushing yards 36.0 -- Carries 7.6 2-12 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dominic Overby WR Receiving yards 29.9 -- Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.41 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Tyler Fortenberry TE Receiving yards 27.2 3-48 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Sullivan Schlimgen LB Tackles 5.4 2-8 Malcolm Jones S Tackles 4.7 2-8 Isaac Terrell DE Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Max Baloun DT Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Iowa recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Iowa State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 IOWA 13 ISU 16 ISU 2024 ISU 20 IOWA 19 ISU 2023 IOWA 20 ISU 13 IOWA ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10195