Louisiana Tech at LSU NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors LSU by 8.7 points, giving them a 69% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 44.9 combined points, with LSU at 26.9 and Louisiana Tech at 18.0. Simulating the game 10,000 times, LSU's margin lands between -13.2 and +31.3 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: LSU -8.7 / Louisiana Tech +8.7 Moneyline: LSU -226 / Louisiana Tech +226 Win probability: LSU 69.3% / Louisiana Tech 30.7% Projected total: 44.9 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- LSU: 1557.3, Louisiana Tech: 1497.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor LSU Louisiana Tech ----------------- ----- -------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +3.2 +3.5 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +16.9 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Louisiana Tech 18.0 -- LSU 26.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- LSU margin -13.2 -3.1 +8.9 +20.7 +31.3 Total points 23.4 33.5 44.9 56.2 66.5 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: LSU Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Sam Leavitt QB Passing yards 249.5 165-353 Pass attempts 31.8 23-42 Completions 19.4 13-27 Passing TDs 1.37 75% 1+, 40% 2+ Rushing yards 41.1 1-72 Rushing TDs 0.52 40% 1+, 10% 2+ Jackson Harris WR Receiving yards 87.6 52-135 Receptions 4.7 2-7 Receiving TDs 1.19 70% 1+, 33% 2+ Jayce Brown WR Rushing yards 35.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.22 19% 1+ Receiving yards 66.1 30-112 Receptions 3.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Tre' Brown WR Receiving yards 54.7 19-109 Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.32 28% 1+ Trey'Dez Green TE Receiving yards 49.1 25-92 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ Harlem Berry RB Rushing yards 48.4 7-73 Carries 10.8 5-16 Rushing TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Receiving yards 13.7 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dilin Jones RB Rushing yards 46.3 5-71 Carries 11.1 6-16 Rushing TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Receiving yards 8.2 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Malachi Thomas TE Receiving yards 26.0 2-37 Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Ty Benefield S Tackles 7.5 5-10 Davhon Keys LB Tackles 7.2 4-11 Princewill Umanmielen DE Sacks 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Stephiylan Green DT Sacks 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ LOUISIANA TECH Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Blake Baker QB Passing yards 172.7 88-284 Pass attempts 23.7 15-37 Completions 15.3 9-25 Passing TDs 0.52 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Rushing yards 31.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Eli Finley TE Receiving yards 29.9 6-50 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ David Pierro WR Receiving yards 27.2 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jalen Mickens WR Receiving yards 18.9 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kolbe Fields LB Tackles 6.3 4-11 Jadon Mayfield LB Tackles 5.6 2-7 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Donovan Rieman DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ LSU recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Louisiana Tech recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ---- ------ ------ 2025 LT 7 LSU 23 LSU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10197