Ohio State at Texas NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Texas by 1.0 points, giving them a 52% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 43.3 combined points, with Texas at 22.0 and Ohio State at 20.9. The real sportsbook market agrees closely, also favoring Texas by 1.5 points -- little disagreement between the model and the market here. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Texas's margin lands between -21.4 and +23.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Texas -1.0 / Ohio State +1.0 Moneyline: Texas -110 / Ohio State +110 Win probability: Texas 52.4% / Ohio State 47.6% Projected total: 43.3 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Texas: 1720.3, Ohio State: 1791.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Texas Ohio State ----------------- ----- ---------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +0.8 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Texas -1.5 / Ohio State +1.5 Consensus moneyline: Texas -115 / Ohio State -104 Market no-vig win probability: Texas 51.2% / Ohio State 48.8% Spread range across books: -1.5 to -1.5 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:04.030373+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Texas EV% Ohio State EV% ---------- ----- ----- ---------- ----- betrivers -125 -5.6% +100 -4.8% draftkings -112 -0.8% -108 -8.4% fanduel -115 -2.0% -104 -6.7% mybookieag -121 -4.3% -105 -7.1% Spread: Book Texas Ohio State ---------- ----------- ----------- betrivers -1.5 (-112) +1.5 (-110) draftkings -1.5 (-105) +1.5 (-115) fanduel -1.5 (-106) +1.5 (-114) mybookieag -1.5 (-110) +1.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Texas -1.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -1.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Ohio State 20.9 -- Texas 22.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ----- ----- ---- ----- ----- Texas margin -21.4 -10.7 +1.1 +13.0 +23.6 Total points 21.5 31.5 43.1 54.2 64.6 Probability Texas covers the market spread: 49.3% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: TEXAS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Arch Manning QB Passing yards 157.5 73-223 Pass attempts 32.5 24-40 Completions 20.1 14-26 Passing TDs 1.21 70% 1+, 34% 2+ Rushing yards 20.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Raleek Brown RB Rushing yards 50.5 9-104 Carries 13.9 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Receiving yards 16.5 -- Receptions 3.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Hollywood Smothers RB Rushing yards 46.4 5-87 Carries 12.7 7-19 Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Receiving yards 13.3 -- Receptions 3.3 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ryan Wingo WR Rushing yards 11.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 41.5 6-78 Receptions 4.4 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Cam Coleman WR Receiving yards 38.9 3-70 Receptions 4.7 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Emmett Mosley V WR Receiving yards 31.3 -- Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Michael Masunas TE Receiving yards 23.4 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Rasheem Biles LB Tackles 9.4 6-14 Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Jelani McDonald DB Tackles 6.7 4-10 Brad Spence LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ OHIO STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Julian Sayin QB Passing yards 253.0 169-334 Pass attempts 29.7 21-37 Completions 21.2 15-28 Passing TDs 1.94 86% 1+, 58% 2+ Rushing yards 1.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jeremiah Smith WR Rushing yards 13.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Receiving yards 68.7 33-115 Receptions 5.5 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ Bo Jackson RB Rushing yards 56.0 15-83 Carries 13.3 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Receiving yards 17.7 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.07 7% 1+ Devin McCuin WR Receiving yards 52.3 17-84 Receptions 4.9 3-7 Receiving TDs 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ Hunter Welcing TE Receiving yards 42.8 19-79 Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Isaiah West RB Rushing yards 34.2 -- Carries 8.1 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.07 7% 1+ Kyle Parker WR Receiving yards 32.8 -- Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Mason Williams TE Receiving yards 32.5 9-51 Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Earl Little Jr. S Tackles 6.0 4-7 Christian Alliegro LB Tackles 5.0 2-9 Kenyatta Jackson Jr. DE Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Eddrick Houston DT Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Texas recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Ohio State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 TEX 7 OSU 14 OSU 2024 OSU 28 TEX 14 OSU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10198