Charlotte at Ole Miss NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 11:45 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Ole Miss by 39.0 points, giving them a 97% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 64.9 combined points, with Ole Miss at 51.9 and Charlotte at 12.9. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Ole Miss's margin lands between +16.9 and +61.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Ole Miss -39.0 / Charlotte +39.0 Moneyline: Ole Miss -3840 / Charlotte +3840 Win probability: Ole Miss 97.5% / Charlotte 2.5% Projected total: 64.9 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Ole Miss: 1755.0, Charlotte: 1236.9 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Ole Miss Charlotte ----------------- -------- --------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.1 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +14.7 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Charlotte 12.9 -- Ole Miss 51.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Ole Miss margin +16.9 +26.9 +38.9 +50.6 +61.4 Total points 43.3 53.5 64.8 76.1 86.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: OLE MISS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Trinidad Chambliss QB Passing yards 354.6 270-444 Pass attempts 33.5 25-42 Completions 21.3 15-27 Passing TDs 1.84 84% 1+, 55% 2+ Rushing yards 41.0 0-69 Rushing TDs 0.77 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Kewan Lacy RB Rushing yards 74.4 33-135 Carries 14.9 10-23 Rushing TDs 1.96 86% 1+, 58% 2+ Receiving yards 12.1 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Johntay Cook II WR Receiving yards 59.4 24-104 Receptions 4.2 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Makhi Frazier RB Rushing yards 56.7 16-93 Carries 12.2 6-16 Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Receiving yards 13.8 -- Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Deuce Alexander WR Rushing yards 12.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 47.9 12-89 Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Darrell Gill Jr. WR Receiving yards 38.7 3-66 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ Caleb Odom TE Receiving yards 26.0 2-46 Receptions 2.3 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Keaton Thomas LB Tackles 7.3 4-10 Luke Ferrelli LB Tackles 6.5 4-9 Suntarine Perkins LB Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Jonathan Maldonado DE Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ CHARLOTTE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Grayson Loftis QB Passing yards 167.5 83-274 Pass attempts 25.6 17-35 Completions 15.0 9-22 Passing TDs 0.78 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Rushing yards -1.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaden Barnes WR Receiving yards 59.0 23-128 Receptions 4.9 3-10 Receiving TDs 0.65 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Jariel Cobb RB Rushing yards 36.2 -- Carries 9.2 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 11.1 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Khamani Alexander RB Rushing yards 25.4 -- Carries 6.7 1-8 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Derrick Eley WR Receiving yards 24.1 -- Receptions 1.2 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Lane Wadle TE Receiving yards 22.5 -- Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Gus McGee TE Receiving yards 20.8 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Jaylen Hampton WR Receiving yards 13.9 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kadin Schmitz LB Tackles 6.1 3-10 Gavin Willis LB Tackles 5.7 3-9 Jaylon Johnson DL Sacks 0.14 13% 1+ Curtis Simpson DL Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Ole Miss recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Charlotte recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10199