North Dakota State at Air Force NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 13, 2026 at 2:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors North Dakota State by 1.9 points, giving them a 54% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 39.9 combined points, with Air Force at 19.0 and North Dakota State at 21.1. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Air Force's margin lands between -24.5 and +20.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Air Force +1.9 / North Dakota State -1.9 Moneyline: Air Force +119 / North Dakota State -119 Win probability: Air Force 45.6% / North Dakota State 54.4% Projected total: 39.9 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Air Force: 1429.8, North Dakota State: 1528.4 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Air Force North Dakota State ----------------- --------- ------------------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +3.7 +2.0 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +1.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: North Dakota State 21.1 -- Air Force 19.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ---------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Air Force margin -24.5 -13.9 -2.1 +9.6 +20.4 Total points 18.6 28.9 40.1 51.4 61.1 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: AIR FORCE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Liam Szarka QB Passing yards 103.6 19-167 Pass attempts 17.1 8-23 Completions 11.1 5-16 Passing TDs 1.02 64% 1+, 27% 2+ Rushing yards 49.3 9-77 Rushing TDs 1.14 68% 1+, 31% 2+ Owen Allen RB Rushing yards 56.2 15-113 Carries 12.1 6-21 Rushing TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Jonah Dawson WR Receiving yards 27.4 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Rocco Conti RB Rushing yards 14.8 -- Carries 3.1 3-3 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Blake Fletcher LB Tackles 7.9 5-10 Roger Jones Jr. DB Tackles 6.4 4-10 Isaac Hubert LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Jaylin Reese LB Sacks 0.17 15% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Air Force recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games North Dakota State recent form: 1-1 over last 2 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10200