Arkansas at Utah NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 13, 2026 at 2:15 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Utah by 22.1 points, giving them a 89% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 86.6 combined points, with Utah at 54.4 and Arkansas at 32.4. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Utah favored by 7.5 points, a 14.6-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Utah's margin lands between +0.4 and +44.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Utah -22.1 / Arkansas +22.1 Moneyline: Utah -788 / Arkansas +788 Win probability: Utah 88.7% / Arkansas 11.3% Projected total: 86.6 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Utah: 1697.2, Arkansas: 1413.2 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Utah Arkansas ----------------- ---- -------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +1.0 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +6.6 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Utah -7.5 / Arkansas +7.5 Consensus moneyline: Utah -320 / Arkansas +255 Market no-vig win probability: Utah 73.0% / Arkansas 27.0% Spread range across books: -7.5 to -7.5 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:04.018125+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Utah EV% Arkansas EV% ---------- ---- ------ -------- ------ betrivers -315 +16.9% +235 -62.3% draftkings -375 +12.4% +295 -55.5% fanduel -320 +16.5% +255 -60.0% mybookieag -370 +12.7% +265 -58.9% Spread: Book Utah Arkansas ---------- ----------- ----------- betrivers -7.5 (-112) +7.5 (-112) draftkings -9.5 (-108) +9.5 (-112) fanduel -7.5 (-115) +7.5 (-105) mybookieag -9.5 (-110) +9.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Utah -10.0 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -7.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Arkansas 32.4 -- Utah 54.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- Utah margin +0.4 +10.4 +21.9 +33.6 +44.5 Total points 65.3 75.1 86.8 98.0 108.3 Probability Utah covers the market spread: 80.0% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: UTAH Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Devon Dampier QB Passing yards 262.5 178-366 Pass attempts 27.2 18-37 Completions 16.3 10-22 Passing TDs 2.54 92% 1+, 72% 2+ Rushing yards 74.9 34-131 Rushing TDs 1.34 74% 1+, 39% 2+ Braden Pegan WR Rushing yards 13.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.42 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 87.0 51-123 Receptions 4.8 3-7 Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Wayshawn Parker RB Rushing yards 80.5 39-131 Carries 12.4 7-17 Rushing TDs 0.47 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Receiving yards 22.7 3-44 Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Kyri Shoels WR Receiving yards 72.2 37-123 Receptions 4.3 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Steve Chavez-Soto RB Rushing yards 64.4 23-91 Carries 11.0 6-13 Rushing TDs 1.09 66% 1+, 30% 2+ Larry Simmons WR Receiving yards 53.9 18-95 Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 1.09 66% 1+, 30% 2+ Jackson Bennee S Tackles 5.5 3-9 Johnathan Hall LB Tackles 5.3 2-8 Elijah Elliss LB Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Ethan Day DE Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ ARKANSAS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- KJ Jackson QB Passing yards 123.2 39-198 Pass attempts 22.9 14-38 Completions 13.5 8-21 Passing TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Rushing yards 12.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.54 42% 1+, 10% 2+ Donovan Faupel WR Receiving yards 57.4 22-86 Receptions 5.1 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.68 49% 1+, 15% 2+ Chris Marshall WR Receiving yards 51.8 16-88 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Sutton Smith RB Rushing yards 51.1 10-89 Carries 8.2 2-12 Rushing TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Receiving yards 11.7 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jamari Hawkins WR Receiving yards 48.7 13-95 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Braylen Russell RB Rushing yards 43.4 2-60 Carries 7.6 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.57 44% 1+, 11% 2+ Receiving yards 18.8 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaden Platt TE Receiving yards 31.0 7-56 Receptions 2.3 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Matt Adcock TE Receiving yards 12.1 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Khmori House DB Tackles 6.4 4-10 Christian Harrison DB Tackles 5.2 3-9 Steven Soles Jr. DL Sacks 0.70 50% 1+, 16% 2+ Ben Bogle LB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Utah recent form: 5-0 over last 5 games Arkansas recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10201