Sacramento State at Fresno State NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 13, 2026 at 2:30 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Fresno State by 13.2 points, giving them a 77% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 31.3 combined points, with Fresno State at 22.1 and Sacramento State at 9.3. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Fresno State's margin lands between -9.2 and +34.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Fresno State -13.2 / Sacramento State +13.2 Moneyline: Fresno State -343 / Sacramento State +343 Win probability: Fresno State 77.5% / Sacramento State 22.6% Projected total: 31.3 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Fresno State: 1532.9, Sacramento State: 1421.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Fresno State Sacramento State ----------------- ------------ ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 -1.8 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +16.8 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Sacramento State 9.3 -- Fresno State 22.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Fresno State margin -9.2 +1.4 +13.0 +24.5 +34.9 Total points 10.0 20.2 31.2 42.8 53.1 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: FRESNO STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Khristian Martin QB Passing yards 94.1 10-137 Pass attempts 6.0 -- Completions 4.5 -- Passing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Josiah Freeman WR Rushing yards 12.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 62.0 26-111 Receptions 4.5 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ Jahlil McClain WR Receiving yards 40.4 5-60 Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Rayshon Luke RB Rushing yards 40.3 -- Carries 9.8 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Receiving yards 14.6 -- Receptions 3.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Ezekiel Avit WR Receiving yards 31.7 -- Receptions 3.0 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Bryson Donelson RB Rushing yards 27.3 -- Carries 10.3 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Receiving yards 12.0 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jake Appleget TE Receiving yards 18.9 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.18 17% 1+ K'vion Thunderbird LB Tackles 5.1 2-7 Tytus Khajavi LB Tackles 4.6 2-6 Sione Noa DL Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Jahzon Jacks DL Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ SACRAMENTO STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Carson Conklin QB Passing yards 121.3 37-187 Pass attempts 31.5 23-45 Completions 17.7 12-26 Passing TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Rushing yards -0.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Matt Coleman WR Receiving yards 23.0 -- Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Boogsie Silvera S Tackles 5.0 2-11 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Tim Thomas LB Tackles 4.7 2-7 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Fresno State recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Sacramento State recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------- ------ 2024 SAC 30 FRES 46 FRES ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10202