Louisiana at USC NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 13, 2026 at 3:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors USC by 16.8 points, giving them a 83% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 53.8 combined points, with USC at 35.4 and Louisiana at 18.4. Simulating the game 10,000 times, USC's margin lands between -5.2 and +39.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Terrell Anderson (Out). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: USC -16.8 / Louisiana +16.8 Moneyline: USC -482 / Louisiana +482 Win probability: USC 82.8% / Louisiana 17.2% Projected total: 53.8 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- USC: 1648.4, Louisiana: 1463.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor USC Louisiana ----------------- ----- --------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard -3.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 -3.1 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +19.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Louisiana 18.4 -- USC 35.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- USC margin -5.2 +5.4 +17.1 +28.6 +39.5 Total points 32.5 42.5 53.7 65.0 75.0 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: USC Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jayden Maiava QB Passing yards 286.9 202-358 Pass attempts 31.8 23-39 Completions 20.2 14-26 Passing TDs 1.75 83% 1+, 52% 2+ Rushing yards 18.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.41 33% 1+, 6% 2+ King Miller RB Rushing yards 109.7 69-166 Carries 15.0 10-18 Rushing TDs 1.08 66% 1+, 29% 2+ Receiving yards 26.6 7-46 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Waymond Jordan RB Rushing yards 102.3 61-188 Carries 12.3 6-18 Rushing TDs 1.03 64% 1+, 28% 2+ Receiving yards 25.8 6-44 Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tanook Hines WR Receiving yards 62.7 27-138 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Zacharyus Williams WR Receiving yards 49.4 14-78 Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Terrell Anderson WR Receiving yards 28.5 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Carson Tabaracci TE Receiving yards 24.2 0-33 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Desman Stephens II LB Tackles 7.4 4-12 Alex Graham CB Tackles 5.1 4-9 Kameryn Crawford DE Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Jadyn Ramos DE Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ LOUISIANA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Lunch Winfield QB Passing yards 176.8 92-236 Pass attempts 25.8 17-32 Completions 15.6 10-20 Passing TDs 1.16 69% 1+, 32% 2+ Rushing yards 50.8 10-90 Rushing TDs 0.77 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Shelton Sampson Jr. WR Receiving yards 54.5 19-90 Receptions 3.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.76 53% 1+, 18% 2+ Caden Jensen TE Receiving yards 29.9 6-54 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Brock Chappell TE Receiving yards 24.3 0-42 Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Landon Strother WR Receiving yards 19.4 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Steven Blanco RB Rushing yards 16.6 -- Carries 4.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Jaydon Johnson WR Receiving yards 12.9 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Maurion Eleam S Tackles 5.2 3-7 Brent Gordon Jr. CB Tackles 5.1 4-7 Maxie Baudoin IV DL Sacks 0.14 13% 1+ Fitzgerald West Jr. DL Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ USC recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Louisiana recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ---------------- --- ---- ------ Terrell Anderson WR USC Out ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10203