Syracuse at Pittsburgh NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 17, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Pittsburgh by 18.0 points, giving them a 84% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 55.0 combined points, with Pittsburgh at 36.5 and Syracuse at 18.4. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Pittsburgh's margin lands between -4.6 and +40.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Pittsburgh -18.0 / Syracuse +18.0 Moneyline: Pittsburgh -536 / Syracuse +536 Win probability: Pittsburgh 84.3% / Syracuse 15.7% Projected total: 55.0 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Pittsburgh: 1547.9, Syracuse: 1356.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Pittsburgh Syracuse ----------------- ---------- -------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +2.9 +3.2 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +15.5 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Syracuse 18.4 -- Pittsburgh 36.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Pittsburgh margin -4.6 +6.2 +18.1 +29.9 +40.6 Total points 33.4 43.3 54.8 66.4 76.7 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: PITTSBURGH Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Mason Heintschel QB Passing yards 288.4 204-416 Pass attempts 32.6 24-41 Completions 20.3 14-25 Passing TDs 1.70 82% 1+, 51% 2+ Rushing yards 17.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Ja'Kyrian Turner RB Rushing yards 67.5 26-137 Carries 12.5 7-19 Rushing TDs 0.74 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Receiving yards 21.7 2-36 Receptions 3.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ La'Vell Wright RB Rushing yards 51.1 10-99 Carries 9.0 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.74 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Receiving yards 14.9 -- Receptions 1.6 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Cataurus Hicks WR Rushing yards 3.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 48.3 13-96 Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Censere Lee WR Receiving yards 38.8 3-64 Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Bryce Yates WR Receiving yards 31.9 -- Receptions 1.9 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Elijah Lagg TE Receiving yards 16.5 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Braylan Lovelace LB Tackles 6.1 3-9 Cruce Brookins DB Tackles 5.4 3-10 Jimmy Scott DL Sacks 0.57 44% 1+, 11% 2+ Isaiah Neal DL Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ SYRACUSE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Steve Angeli QB Passing yards 253.2 169-359 Pass attempts 34.0 26-47 Completions 20.9 14-30 Passing TDs 2.02 87% 1+, 60% 2+ Rushing yards 2.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cole Weaver WR Receiving yards 60.9 25-86 Receptions 4.2 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Noah Meyers TE Receiving yards 54.3 30-103 Receptions 3.2 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.59 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Daunte Bacheyie TE Receiving yards 31.5 8-49 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tylik Hill RB Rushing yards 26.1 -- Carries 7.8 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ju'Juan Johnson RB Rushing yards 21.5 -- Carries 4.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 9.4 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Darien Williams WR Receiving yards 20.4 -- Receptions 2.2 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chris D'Appolonia LB Tackles 6.1 3-9 Antoine Deslauriers LB Tackles 5.2 2-8 Tunmise Adeleye DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Jartavius Flounoy DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Pittsburgh recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Syracuse recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 PITT 30 SYR 13 PITT 2024 SYR 13 PITT 41 PITT 2023 PITT 13 SYR 28 SYR ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10204