Miami at Wake Forest NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 18, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Miami by 10.9 points, giving them a 73% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 41.0 combined points, with Wake Forest at 15.0 and Miami at 26.0. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Wake Forest's margin lands between -33.2 and +11.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Wake Forest +10.9 / Miami -10.9 Moneyline: Wake Forest +276 / Miami -276 Win probability: Wake Forest 26.6% / Miami 73.4% Projected total: 41.0 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Wake Forest: 1525.8, Miami: 1781.4 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Wake Forest Miami ----------------- ----------- ----- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +2.5 +2.8 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector -0.6 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Miami 26.0 -- Wake Forest 15.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------ ----- ----- ----- ---- ----- Wake Forest margin -33.2 -22.7 -11.1 +0.7 +11.1 Total points 19.3 29.8 40.8 52.1 62.3 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: WAKE FOREST Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Gio Lopez QB Passing yards 171.5 87-219 Pass attempts 27.3 18-37 Completions 17.7 12-23 Passing TDs 0.65 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Rushing yards 10.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Carlos Hernandez WR Receiving yards 57.8 22-122 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Wondame Davis Jr. WR Receiving yards 53.8 18-110 Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.34 28% 1+ Chase Tyler WR Receiving yards 36.9 1-64 Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ty Clark III RB Rushing yards 34.3 -- Carries 8.8 3-14 Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Receiving yards 18.9 -- Receptions 2.5 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.07 7% 1+ Landon Morris TE Receiving yards 27.2 3-34 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.53 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Kamrean Johnson TE Receiving yards 21.1 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ KD Daniels RB Rushing yards 19.4 -- Carries 5.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Aiden Hall LB Tackles 5.7 3-9 Davaughn Patterson DB Tackles 5.7 4-8 Langston Hardy DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Gabe Kirschke DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ MIAMI Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Darian Mensah QB Passing yards 211.6 127-281 Pass attempts 34.6 26-43 Completions 22.3 16-28 Passing TDs 1.83 84% 1+, 55% 2+ Rushing yards 5.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Mark Fletcher Jr. RB Rushing yards 59.0 18-103 Carries 13.5 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Receiving yards 15.1 -- Receptions 2.5 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Cooper Barkate WR Receiving yards 56.9 21-102 Receptions 4.9 3-9 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Malachi Toney WR Rushing yards 12.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 53.3 18-102 Receptions 5.5 4-10 Receiving TDs 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Vandrevius Jacobs WR Receiving yards 51.6 16-102 Receptions 4.0 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.29 26% 1+ Girard Pringle Jr. RB Rushing yards 41.8 1-78 Carries 9.6 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Elija Lofton TE Receiving yards 19.0 -- Receptions 1.7 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Omar Thornton DB Tackles 7.0 5-10 Mohamed Toure LB Tackles 5.6 2-9 Damon Wilson II DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Ahmad Moten Sr. DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Wake Forest recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Miami recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------ ------ 2024 WAKE 14 MIA 42 MIA ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10205