Houston at Texas Tech NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Texas Tech by 14.0 points, giving them a 79% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 46.7 combined points, with Texas Tech at 30.4 and Houston at 16.2. The real sportsbook market agrees closely, also favoring Texas Tech by 13.5 points -- little disagreement between the model and the market here. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Texas Tech's margin lands between -8.2 and +36.3 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Texas Tech -14.0 / Houston +14.0 Moneyline: Texas Tech -371 / Houston +371 Win probability: Texas Tech 78.8% / Houston 21.2% Projected total: 46.7 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Texas Tech: 1708.8, Houston: 1542.6 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Texas Tech Houston ----------------- ---------- ------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.6 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +15.4 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Texas Tech -13.5 / Houston +13.5 Consensus moneyline: Texas Tech -535 / Houston +400 Market no-vig win probability: Texas Tech 80.8% / Houston 19.2% Spread range across books: -13.5 to -13.5 (1 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-10T12:20:04.589213+00:00 -- STALE, hasn't refreshed recently): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Texas Tech EV% Houston EV% ---------- ---------- ----- ------- ----- draftkings -535 -6.5% +400 +6.0% Spread: Book Texas Tech Houston ---------- ------------ ------------ draftkings -13.5 (-115) +13.5 (-105) Line movement: opened Texas Tech -13.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -13.5 (August 10, 2026 at 12:20 PM UTC), 115 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Houston 16.2 -- Texas Tech 30.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Texas Tech margin -8.2 +2.6 +14.2 +25.8 +36.3 Total points 25.3 35.1 46.6 58.1 68.1 Probability Texas Tech covers the market spread: 51.6% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: TEXAS TECH Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Will Hammond QB Passing yards 156.1 72-238 Pass attempts 22.5 14-34 Completions 13.7 8-21 Passing TDs 0.96 62% 1+, 25% 2+ Rushing yards 37.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.55 42% 1+, 10% 2+ Cameron Dickey RB Rushing yards 60.4 19-90 Carries 12.9 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.73 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Receiving yards 15.6 -- Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ J'Koby Williams RB Rushing yards 58.3 17-99 Carries 11.1 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Receiving yards 21.0 2-42 Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Kenny Johnson WR Receiving yards 57.6 22-98 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.35 30% 1+ Donte Lee Jr. WR Receiving yards 48.4 13-76 Receptions 3.3 1-6 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Terrance Carter Jr. TE Receiving yards 47.0 23-85 Receptions 3.8 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Malcolm Simmons WR Rushing yards 20.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Receiving yards 41.5 6-87 Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Jett Carpenter TE Receiving yards 38.4 14-70 Receptions 3.0 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Ben Roberts LB Tackles 6.8 4-12 Austin Romaine LB Tackles 6.8 4-10 Trey White LB Sacks 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ Jamond Mathis LB Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ HOUSTON Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Conner Weigman QB Passing yards 198.3 114-252 Pass attempts 29.7 21-35 Completions 19.8 14-25 Passing TDs 1.85 84% 1+, 55% 2+ Rushing yards 48.0 8-101 Rushing TDs 0.68 49% 1+, 15% 2+ Amare Thomas WR Rushing yards 5.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 62.5 27-98 Receptions 5.4 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.66 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Trent Walker WR Receiving yards 53.4 18-106 Receptions 5.1 3-9 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Patrick Overmyer TE Receiving yards 40.7 17-71 Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.58 44% 1+, 12% 2+ Koby Young WR Receiving yards 31.1 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Makhi Hughes RB Rushing yards 25.0 -- Carries 9.5 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ DJ Butler RB Rushing yards 24.4 -- Carries 9.0 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 7.1 -- Receptions 2.0 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kentrell Webb DB Tackles 5.4 3-9 Miller Malone LB Tackles 4.8 2-9 Brandon Mack II LB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Carmycah Glass LB Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Texas Tech recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Houston recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 TTU 35 HOU 11 TTU 2023 HOU 28 TTU 49 TTU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10206