Coastal Carolina at Delaware NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 3:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Delaware by 6.5 points, giving them a 65% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 74.0 combined points, with Delaware at 40.2 and Coastal Carolina at 33.8. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Delaware's margin lands between -15.7 and +28.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Delaware -6.5 / Coastal Carolina +6.5 Moneyline: Delaware -184 / Coastal Carolina +184 Win probability: Delaware 64.7% / Coastal Carolina 35.3% Projected total: 74.0 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Delaware: 1448.8, Coastal Carolina: 1431.5 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Delaware Coastal Carolina ----------------- -------- ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +0.8 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Coastal Carolina 33.8 -- Delaware 40.2 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Delaware margin -15.7 -5.2 +6.3 +18.1 +28.6 Total points 52.4 62.6 74.0 85.4 95.1 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: DELAWARE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Nick Minicucci QB Passing yards 276.0 192-378 Pass attempts 37.0 28-46 Completions 23.6 18-28 Passing TDs 2.11 88% 1+, 62% 2+ Rushing yards 19.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Sean Wilson WR Receiving yards 76.6 41-135 Receptions 5.1 3-7 Receiving TDs 0.57 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Jo Silver RB Rushing yards 60.2 19-102 Carries 11.1 6-16 Rushing TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Receiving yards 26.3 7-54 Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Viron Ellison Jr. RB Rushing yards 52.2 11-84 Carries 10.7 5-16 Rushing TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Receiving yards 23.9 4-50 Receptions 2.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Bryson Graves WR Receiving yards 38.1 2-78 Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Donovan Lewis WR Receiving yards 38.1 2-66 Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Elijah Sessoms TE Receiving yards 20.5 -- Receptions 2.7 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Scott Moore TE Receiving yards 16.0 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Gavin Moul LB Tackles 8.2 6-12 KT Seay S Tackles 6.5 4-9 Brandon Gorham DE Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Noah Matthews DE Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ COASTAL CAROLINA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Daelen Alexander RB Rushing yards 55.7 15-105 Carries 9.8 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.57 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Jevon Edwards RB Rushing yards 46.3 5-74 Carries 7.6 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Receiving yards 12.0 -- Receptions 1.8 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tristian Gardner WR Receiving yards 44.1 8-73 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.74 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Clayton Coppock Jr. WR Rushing yards 15.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Receiving yards 41.9 6-72 Receptions 3.4 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.74 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Zach Courtney TE Receiving yards 35.7 12-63 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Karmello English WR Receiving yards 30.5 -- Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Ja'Marion Wayne CB Tackles 5.2 4-8 Se'Von McDowell LB Tackles 5.2 2-8 DJ Wesolak DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Dezmond Barnes DL Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Delaware recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Coastal Carolina recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10207