Kent State at Ohio State NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Ohio State by 32.7 points, giving them a 96% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 43.2 combined points, with Ohio State at 38.1 and Kent State at 5.2. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Ohio State's margin lands between +10.8 and +55.3 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Ohio State -32.7 / Kent State +32.7 Moneyline: Ohio State -2120 / Kent State +2120 Win probability: Ohio State 95.5% / Kent State 4.5% Projected total: 43.2 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Ohio State: 1791.7, Kent State: 1335.2 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Ohio State Kent State ----------------- ---------- ---------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.0 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +8.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Kent State 5.2 -- Ohio State 38.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Ohio State margin +10.8 +21.1 +33.0 +44.8 +55.3 Total points 21.9 32.2 43.3 54.5 64.5 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: OHIO STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Julian Sayin QB Passing yards 273.9 190-362 Pass attempts 29.7 21-37 Completions 21.2 15-28 Passing TDs 2.77 94% 1+, 76% 2+ Rushing yards 1.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jeremiah Smith WR Rushing yards 15.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Receiving yards 75.6 40-127 Receptions 5.5 4-8 Receiving TDs 1.01 64% 1+, 27% 2+ Bo Jackson RB Rushing yards 70.7 30-104 Carries 13.3 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.57 44% 1+, 11% 2+ Receiving yards 22.4 3-43 Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Devin McCuin WR Receiving yards 57.5 22-92 Receptions 4.9 3-7 Receiving TDs 1.01 64% 1+, 27% 2+ Isaiah West RB Rushing yards 43.1 2-70 Carries 8.1 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Kyle Parker WR Receiving yards 36.1 0-62 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Hunter Welcing TE Receiving yards 27.7 4-51 Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Mason Williams TE Receiving yards 21.0 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Earl Little Jr. S Tackles 6.0 4-7 Christian Alliegro LB Tackles 5.0 2-9 Kenyatta Jackson Jr. DE Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Eddrick Houston DT Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ KENT STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Dru DeShields QB Passing yards 129.6 45-171 Pass attempts 24.1 16-28 Completions 13.7 8-16 Passing TDs 1.13 68% 1+, 31% 2+ Rushing yards 0.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Da'Realyst Clark WR Rushing yards 3.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 29.9 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Wayne Harris WR Receiving yards 27.2 -- Receptions 3.5 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.08 7% 1+ Terik Mulder TE Receiving yards 24.3 0-43 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Marques Hicks RB Rushing yards 20.6 -- Carries 3.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ardell Banks WR Receiving yards 19.7 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Donovan Delaney Jr. RB Rushing yards 15.0 -- Carries 8.2 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Joel Cordoba DB Tackles 5.9 4-10 Derrick Jackson III DB Tackles 5.2 3-8 Jaihien Roy DL Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Darian Blachewicz DL Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Ohio State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Kent State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10208