Akron at Minnesota NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Minnesota by 18.0 points, giving them a 84% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 42.1 combined points, with Minnesota at 30.1 and Akron at 12.0. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Minnesota's margin lands between -4.1 and +40.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Minnesota -18.0 / Akron +18.0 Moneyline: Minnesota -538 / Akron +538 Win probability: Minnesota 84.3% / Akron 15.7% Projected total: 42.1 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Minnesota: 1569.3, Akron: 1359.5 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Minnesota Akron ----------------- --------- ----- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.4 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +16.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Akron 12.0 -- Minnesota 30.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ---------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Minnesota margin -4.1 +6.3 +18.0 +29.7 +40.1 Total points 20.1 30.5 42.3 53.5 63.8 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: MINNESOTA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Drake Lindsey QB Passing yards 184.1 100-250 Pass attempts 30.4 22-39 Completions 19.1 13-22 Passing TDs 1.58 79% 1+, 47% 2+ Rushing yards -5.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Darius Taylor RB Rushing yards 68.1 27-132 Carries 12.2 6-21 Rushing TDs 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 29.4 10-53 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Zion Steptoe WR Rushing yards 25.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 47.0 11-77 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Javon Tracy WR Receiving yards 41.2 6-77 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Noah Jennings WR Receiving yards 38.5 3-60 Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kaden Helms TE Receiving yards 13.2 -- Receptions 1.2 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Maverick Baranowski LB Tackles 8.2 6-12 Andrew Marshall LB Tackles 6.8 4-9 Anthony Smith DL Sacks 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Karter Menz DL Sacks 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ AKRON Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jordan Gant RB Rushing yards 81.1 40-144 Carries 15.6 10-22 Rushing TDs 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 21.0 2-36 Receptions 2.6 2-3 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Marcel Williams WR Receiving yards 71.5 36-147 Receptions 4.5 2-9 Receiving TDs 0.27 23% 1+ Kyan Mason WR Receiving yards 53.4 18-98 Receptions 3.3 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.53 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Sean Patrick RB Rushing yards 46.9 6-82 Carries 9.5 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Receiving yards 24.8 5-45 Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cameron Monteiro WR Receiving yards 33.6 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Conner Cravaack TE Receiving yards 24.3 0-41 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Jamari Somerville S Tackles 4.9 2-10 Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Mehki Flowers DB Tackles 4.8 2-8 Cyrus Durham DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Minnesota recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Akron recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10209