Tulane at Kansas State NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Kansas State by 2.8 points, giving them a 57% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 59.5 combined points, with Kansas State at 31.0 and Tulane at 28.6. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Kansas State's margin lands between -19.8 and +24.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Kansas State -2.8 / Tulane +2.8 Moneyline: Kansas State -131 / Tulane +131 Win probability: Kansas State 56.6% / Tulane 43.4% Projected total: 59.5 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Kansas State: 1567.8, Tulane: 1619.4 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Kansas State Tulane ----------------- ------------ ------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.5 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +11.2 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Tulane 28.6 -- Kansas State 31.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Kansas State margin -19.8 -9.2 +2.7 +14.0 +24.4 Total points 37.8 48.3 59.7 71.0 81.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: KANSAS STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Avery Johnson QB Passing yards 239.9 156-334 Pass attempts 27.8 19-37 Completions 16.8 10-23 Passing TDs 1.66 81% 1+, 50% 2+ Rushing yards 56.6 16-92 Rushing TDs 0.83 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Jaron Tibbs WR Receiving yards 63.8 28-82 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Joe Jackson RB Rushing yards 54.1 13-130 Carries 13.5 8-22 Rushing TDs 0.67 49% 1+, 15% 2+ Receiving yards 13.7 -- Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Rodney Fields Jr. RB Rushing yards 50.4 9-88 Carries 12.7 7-18 Rushing TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Receiving yards 21.5 2-43 Receptions 3.2 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Brandon White WR Receiving yards 46.4 11-73 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Garrett Oakley TE Receiving yards 38.8 15-64 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.74 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Josh Manning WR Receiving yards 37.3 2-68 Receptions 2.7 0-5 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Linkon Cure TE Receiving yards 17.4 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mekhi Mason LB Tackles 5.1 2-7 Zashon Rich CB Tackles 4.7 3-7 Elijah Hill DE Sacks 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Jordan Allen DE Sacks 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ TULANE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Zeon Chriss-Gremillion QB Passing yards 118.7 34-176 Pass attempts 17.6 9-25 Completions 7.7 2-10 Passing TDs 0.29 26% 1+ Jamauri McClure RB Rushing yards 72.2 31-129 Carries 10.9 6-19 Rushing TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Receiving yards 16.9 -- Receptions 1.5 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Anthony Brown-Stephens WR Rushing yards 9.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 48.3 13-76 Receptions 3.9 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Maurice Turner RB Rushing yards 45.3 4-85 Carries 8.0 2-13 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Garrett Mmahat WR Receiving yards 27.5 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Zycarl Lewis Jr. WR Receiving yards 27.3 -- Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Dawson Johnson TE Receiving yards 23.7 -- Receptions 1.8 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Chris Rodgers LB Tackles 7.5 4-9 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Dickson Agu LB Tackles 6.9 4-10 TJ Smith DB Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Kansas State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Tulane recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------- ------ 2024 KSU 34 TULN 27 KSU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10210