Georgia at Arkansas NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Georgia by 18.5 points, giving them a 85% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 66.8 combined points, with Arkansas at 24.1 and Georgia at 42.7. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Georgia favored by 16.5 points, a 2.0-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Arkansas's margin lands between -40.5 and +3.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Arkansas +18.5 / Georgia -18.5 Moneyline: Arkansas +565 / Georgia -565 Win probability: Arkansas 15.0% / Georgia 85.0% Projected total: 66.8 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Arkansas: 1413.2, Georgia: 1774.4 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Arkansas Georgia ----------------- -------- ------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.1 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector -6.4 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Arkansas +16.5 / Georgia -16.5 Consensus moneyline: Arkansas +580 / Georgia -880 Market no-vig win probability: Arkansas 14.1% / Georgia 85.9% Spread range across books: +16.5 to +16.5 (1 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:04.032649+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Arkansas EV% Georgia EV% ------- -------- ----- ------- ----- fanduel +580 +2.3% -880 -5.4% Spread: Book Arkansas Georgia ------- ------------ ------------ fanduel +16.5 (-110) -16.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Arkansas +13.5 (July 27, 2026 at 12:20 PM UTC), now +16.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 137 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Georgia 42.7 -- Arkansas 24.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ----- ----- ----- ---- ---- Arkansas margin -40.5 -30.4 -18.6 -6.8 +3.5 Total points 45.4 55.5 66.9 78.3 88.0 Probability Arkansas covers the market spread: 45.2% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: ARKANSAS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- KJ Jackson QB Passing yards 163.5 79-263 Pass attempts 22.9 14-38 Completions 13.5 8-21 Passing TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Rushing yards 15.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Donovan Faupel WR Receiving yards 60.0 24-90 Receptions 5.1 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.71 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Chris Marshall WR Receiving yards 54.2 18-92 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Jamari Hawkins WR Receiving yards 50.9 15-99 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Sutton Smith RB Rushing yards 28.3 -- Carries 8.2 2-12 Rushing TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Receiving yards 6.5 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Braylen Russell RB Rushing yards 24.0 -- Carries 7.6 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Receiving yards 10.4 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaden Platt TE Receiving yards 22.9 -- Receptions 2.3 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Matt Adcock TE Receiving yards 9.0 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Khmori House DB Tackles 6.4 4-10 Christian Harrison DB Tackles 5.2 3-9 Steven Soles Jr. DL Sacks 0.70 50% 1+, 16% 2+ Ben Bogle LB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ GEORGIA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Gunner Stockton QB Passing yards 254.7 170-343 Pass attempts 27.6 19-32 Completions 19.1 13-24 Passing TDs 2.68 93% 1+, 75% 2+ Rushing yards 37.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Nate Frazier RB Rushing yards 78.1 37-132 Carries 13.2 8-15 Rushing TDs 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Receiving yards 19.5 0-35 Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Isiah Canion WR Receiving yards 52.2 17-86 Receptions 3.0 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Chauncey Bowens RB Rushing yards 51.7 11-84 Carries 9.4 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.47 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Receiving yards 18.1 -- Receptions 2.5 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ London Humphreys WR Receiving yards 43.5 8-69 Receptions 2.1 -- Receiving TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Elyiss Williams TE Receiving yards 22.1 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Lawson Luckie TE Receiving yards 18.9 -- Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.47 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Sacovie White-Helton WR Receiving yards 18.4 -- Receptions 1.2 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ja'Marley Riddle S Tackles 6.1 4-9 KJ Bolden DB Tackles 5.6 4-9 Zayden Walker LB Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Amaris Williams LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Arkansas recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Georgia recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10211