Bowling Green at Iowa State NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Iowa State by 18.4 points, giving them a 85% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 42.4 combined points, with Iowa State at 30.3 and Bowling Green at 11.9. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Iowa State's margin lands between -3.5 and +40.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Iowa State -18.4 / Bowling Green +18.4 Moneyline: Iowa State -557 / Bowling Green +557 Win probability: Iowa State 84.8% / Bowling Green 15.2% Projected total: 42.4 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Iowa State: 1577.0, Bowling Green: 1348.9 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Iowa State Bowling Green ----------------- ---------- ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +2.7 +0.8 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +3.5 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Bowling Green 11.9 -- Iowa State 30.3 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Iowa State margin -3.5 +6.8 +18.4 +29.7 +40.6 Total points 20.7 30.7 42.2 53.5 63.6 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: IOWA STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jaylen Raynor QB Passing yards 264.4 180-324 Pass attempts 36.5 28-44 Completions 23.8 18-30 Passing TDs 1.56 79% 1+, 46% 2+ Rushing yards 38.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Cameron Pettaway RB Rushing yards 51.2 10-84 Carries 9.5 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 26.4 7-91 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.49 38% 1+, 9% 2+ Tyler Fortenberry TE Receiving yards 48.8 25-85 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Omari Hayes WR Receiving yards 41.4 6-65 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Carter Pabst WR Receiving yards 39.9 4-71 Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Arnold Barnes III RB Rushing yards 35.1 -- Carries 7.6 2-12 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dominic Overby WR Receiving yards 31.2 -- Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Sullivan Schlimgen LB Tackles 5.4 2-8 Malcolm Jones S Tackles 4.7 2-8 Isaac Terrell DE Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Max Baloun DT Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ BOWLING GREEN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Hunter Najm QB Passing yards 137.2 53-195 Pass attempts 20.3 12-29 Completions 10.4 4-14 Passing TDs 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Rushing yards 14.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Austyn Dendy RB Rushing yards 60.0 19-79 Carries 16.0 10-20 Rushing TDs 0.76 53% 1+, 18% 2+ Receiving yards 17.3 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Brennan Ridley WR Receiving yards 50.6 15-111 Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Winn Sharp WR Receiving yards 20.2 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kal-El Pascal S Tackles 6.2 4-9 Preston EstoEsta S Tackles 4.3 2-5 Eriq George DE Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Myles Bradley DE Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Iowa State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Bowling Green recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10212