Arizona State at Kansas NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Arizona State by 1.1 points, giving them a 53% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 52.6 combined points, with Kansas at 25.6 and Arizona State at 26.9. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Kansas's margin lands between -24.0 and +21.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Kansas +1.1 / Arizona State -1.1 Moneyline: Kansas +111 / Arizona State -111 Win probability: Kansas 47.5% / Arizona State 52.5% Projected total: 52.6 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Kansas: 1460.2, Arizona State: 1559.6 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Kansas Arizona State ----------------- ------ ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +1.2 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +14.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Arizona State 26.9 -- Kansas 25.6 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------- ----- ----- ---- ----- ----- Kansas margin -24.0 -13.0 -1.1 +10.3 +21.1 Total points 31.3 41.2 52.4 63.5 74.0 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: KANSAS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Chase Jenkins QB Passing yards 138.3 54-203 Pass attempts 19.4 10-26 Completions 12.8 6-18 Passing TDs 0.97 62% 1+, 26% 2+ Rushing yards 42.2 2-68 Rushing TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Nik McMillan WR Receiving yards 83.1 48-149 Receptions 5.3 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.27 23% 1+ Dylan Edwards RB Rushing yards 53.4 12-143 Carries 11.3 6-21 Rushing TDs 0.58 44% 1+, 12% 2+ Yasin Willis RB Rushing yards 52.4 11-75 Carries 12.5 7-15 Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Receiving yards 13.6 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Nahzae Cox WR Receiving yards 47.8 12-79 Receptions 3.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Cam Pickett WR Receiving yards 44.1 8-65 Receptions 4.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Carson Bruhn TE Receiving yards 27.2 3-41 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jailen Butler TE Receiving yards 21.7 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Trey Lathan LB Tackles 7.0 4-10 Jibreel Al-Amin LB Tackles 5.5 2-8 Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Blake Herold DT Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ARIZONA STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Cutter Boley QB Passing yards 201.4 117-284 Pass attempts 31.2 22-41 Completions 20.0 14-28 Passing TDs 1.57 79% 1+, 46% 2+ Rushing yards 9.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Omarion Miller WR Receiving yards 63.0 27-101 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.87 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Demarius Robinson RB Rushing yards 52.3 11-85 Carries 9.9 4-17 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 28.0 8-82 Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Reed Harris WR Receiving yards 51.9 16-89 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Jalen Moss WR Receiving yards 43.9 8-88 Receptions 3.0 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Kyson Brown RB Rushing yards 27.9 -- Carries 8.5 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Anthony Miller TE Receiving yards 17.9 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Owen Long LB Tackles 10.4 8-15 Khamari Anderson TE Receiving yards 8.3 -- Receptions 1.2 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Lyrik Rawls DB Tackles 6.1 4-9 Clayton Smith DE Sacks 0.57 44% 1+, 11% 2+ Emar'rion Winston DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Kansas recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Arizona State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ----- ------ ------ 2024 KU 31 ASU 35 ASU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10213