Buffalo at Penn State NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Penn State by 20.9 points, giving them a 88% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 45.3 combined points, with Penn State at 32.9 and Buffalo at 12.3. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Penn State's margin lands between -1.4 and +42.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Penn State -20.9 / Buffalo +20.9 Moneyline: Penn State -708 / Buffalo +708 Win probability: Penn State 87.6% / Buffalo 12.4% Projected total: 45.3 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Penn State: 1669.4, Buffalo: 1399.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Penn State Buffalo ----------------- ---------- ------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +2.5 +3.5 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +5.9 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Buffalo 12.3 -- Penn State 32.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Penn State margin -1.4 +9.1 +20.7 +32.3 +42.6 Total points 23.7 33.8 45.2 56.5 67.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: PENN STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Rocco Becht QB Passing yards 188.8 104-265 Pass attempts 29.7 21-41 Completions 17.8 12-26 Passing TDs 1.16 68% 1+, 32% 2+ Rushing yards 11.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.77 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Carson Hansen RB Rushing yards 90.1 49-135 Carries 14.4 9-21 Rushing TDs 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Receiving yards 21.5 2-34 Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chase Sowell WR Receiving yards 49.3 14-89 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ James Peoples RB Rushing yards 48.7 8-74 Carries 7.2 2-9 Rushing TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Receiving yards 14.3 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Benjamin Brahmer TE Receiving yards 45.8 22-68 Receptions 3.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Brett Eskildsen WR Receiving yards 41.9 6-76 Receptions 3.3 1-6 Receiving TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Gabe Burkle TE Receiving yards 33.9 10-49 Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Koby Howard WR Receiving yards 26.7 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kooper Ebel LB Tackles 7.2 4-10 Tony Rojas LB Tackles 6.4 4-10 Caleb Bacon LB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Vaboue Toure S Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ BUFFALO Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Chance Morrow WR Receiving yards 45.0 9-98 Receptions 3.5 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.71 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Jasaiah Gathings WR Receiving yards 43.0 7-71 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Terrance Shelton Jr. RB Rushing yards 37.3 -- Carries 8.9 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Receiving yards 13.9 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Patrick Clacks III WR Receiving yards 21.4 -- Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.42 35% 1+, 7% 2+ James McNeil Jr. RB Rushing yards 14.6 -- Carries 3.6 4-4 Rushing TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Miles Greer S Tackles 5.9 4-10 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ SaVeon Brown LB Tackles 4.8 2-8 Cornell Evans DT Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Penn State recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Buffalo recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10214